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September 22, 2003

Dar-al-Europa

The Muslims are Coming! The Muslims are Coming! declares this article over that Tech Central Station. The author makes plausible projections of the low European birth rate + the inevitable drop in Islamic birth rates to come to the conclusion that about 25% of Western Europeans might be Muslim within 50 years. Among the working age population that portion could be as high as 40%.

Are you terrified yet? Well, calm down, the author makes the case for the emergence of a "mélange" civilization. It would be Islamo-Christian, with antecedants in the early Ottomon polity. The problem I have is that such cultures have always existed within the Dar-al-Islam, but they tend to be anterior to the eventual development of a more thoroughly Muslim polity that reduces the non-Muslim population into dhimmitude. Of course, we are not slaves to history, Westen Islam could spark a Reformation in the faith, but I simply want to remind everyone that the rising Muslim elites have a long history of initial cooperation with the non-Muslim powers that be until the time when the dhimmi become disposable. Also, let me note that many of the dhimmi families that allied themselves with the early Muslim powers later converted to Islam and became part of the Muslim elite. The assumption is that the 75% of Europeans that are predominantly post-Christian will remain so and not convert to Islam in the presence of a vigorous religious tradition-but history teaches us that active organized religious minorities can transform societies that have no alternatives[1].

fn1. Need I elaborate that many of the above assertions could also apply to pre-Enlightenment Christianity? A modus vivendi often existed with the old pagan religions of Europe along the margins of Christendom. The ancient precedent for this behavior seems to be the period between The Edict of Milan in 313 A.D. when the Christians received official toleration from the Empire and 392 when Theodosius the Great banned private pagan worship-the Christians clearly waited until they possessed the commanding heights before dispatching their pagan rivals. After the Battle of Frigidus the pagan elite of the Western Empire finally converted to the new religion.

Posted by razib at 09:54 PM




Good point Razib. There will be race war on the continent well before that.

Posted by: Peter Phillips at September 22, 2003 11:42 PM


I think a culture war is a more appropriate term-though true they are smaller in numbers, the Hindu-Sikh South Asians and African Christian migrants to Europe seem to not pose the great cultural threat that the Muslims do. It is the latter who are from the "near abroad" and racially closer kin, especially to southern Europeans, though obviously there are differences, there is some phenotypic overlap between North Africans & Levantines on the one hand and Latinate Europeans from the north shore of the Mediterranean. The same can not be said for the non-Muslim black and brown populations....

Posted by: razib at September 22, 2003 11:57 PM


Razib,

Once the war starts it will be whites on one side and the others on the other side. Basically, all non-whites in Europe are aliens and once you have a critical mass of public opinion on this, people wont split hairs to see whos Hindu, Sikh, Christian or Moslem. The simple point is that Moslems are almost all non-white and that simplifies the issue.

Posted by: Peter Phillips at September 23, 2003 12:04 AM


1) Perhaps you are correct-which is why whatever rhetorical power I have I try and shunt toward a process of ethnolysis

2) The association of Muslims with non-whites is generally correct (though some numerous groups like Turks might seem colored in Germany-but might be able to pass as some sort of "white" in places like southern Spain or Italy-with the EU lack of borders, re-shuffling of immigrant groups within a generation or two is an issue, especially if Turks judge that can "stand out" less in southern Europe)-which is why I find Neo-Nazi white converts like Ahmed Huber very interesting as an extreme case of bizarro ideological behavior.

Posted by: razib at September 23, 2003 12:15 AM


Razib,

(Before I leave for work) The association of some Muslim nutcases with Neo-Nazis isnt new. Both hate Jews so its an association born out of a common enemy. However, if those Muslims think the Nazis would actually accommodate them (when they hold the levers of power), theyre thoroughly mistaken. :D

Nazis measure everything by race and in Northern Europe at least, no Moslem is going to pass himself successfully as white.

Posted by: Peter Phillips at September 23, 2003 12:22 AM


btw peter-on second thought, i'm skeptical that europeans can't tell the difference between a "nigger" and a "wog"-the racial insults directed toward me are 90% in the "wog" (or "sand nigger") category ("nigger" tends to be directed only from afar or behind). perhaps american whites are more savvy about race differences-but i'm skeptical about that....

in fact, some of the most ethusiastic european christians are black...so i'm skeptical that many europeans would conflate blacks with islam.

but are you trying to imply that the islam-christian divide will only serve to trigger a non-white-white conflict that has been building all along?

Posted by: razib at September 23, 2003 12:24 AM


no Moslem is going to pass himself successfully as white

quibbling-but i have met bosniaks that are blonde. curious from german readers-do all turks look non-white??? at my mosque there were some turkish families, and i'd always get into fights with this red-headed turkish kid (his brothers were all red-heads)).

Posted by: razib at September 23, 2003 12:26 AM


Razib: " quibbling-but i have met bosniaks that are blonde. curious from german readers-do all turks look non-white??? at my mosque there were some turkish families, and i'd always get into fights with this red-headed turkish kid (his brothers were all red-heads)). "

I am not german, but I know the country, and my perception is that the Germans dislike Turks because of their culture and religion, not on racial grounds.
Spaniards, Italians and Greeks are well integrated in Germany, unlike Yougoslavs and Romanians. Most Turks are light -complexioned and could pass unnoticed in any european country where Alpine/ Mediterranean types predominate.

Posted by: eufrenio at September 23, 2003 06:15 AM


I dated a blonde Turkish woman. They exist. (her brunette Turkish roommate was hotter, alas, I never executed the "roommate swap" dating maneuver). Neither were very devout Muslims, but that is the usual divide between the city Turks and the redneck Turks.

I think Europe will mostly halt immigration from North Africa soon enough. They're already starting to preferentially import Eastern Europeans and Latin Americans. I'm more worried about the coming vacuum of power/population in Russia and Siberia/Central Asia.

David

Posted by: David at September 23, 2003 09:45 AM


Razib,

Europe isnt "Christian" in any sense. The only attachments left are to the Nations. Most Germans arent anywhere near as Christian as say American whites in the south but they do have a feeling of being proud Germans. The same applies to the French, the Italians (I know people are going to argue about this - but Italians arent serious Christians any more).

The conflict is going to be between the native white population and the "other". Please remember that in conflicts of this nature, people stop being nuanced. Yes you cant argue that blacks arent mostly Moslem but Christian but who gives a goddamn? There are black Muslims and thats enough to have them in the enmy camp.

Lastly, when politics of this kind emerges, you wont have Gerhard Schroeder arguing with Leonel Jospin about this and that - youll have guys like Haider telling the guy on the street that its a do or die situation. And guys like Haider dont like Blacks (or Sikhs or anybody).

P.S. : Did the fact that many Jews were indistinguishable from gentile Germans stop the Nazis from exterminating them?

How did the Hindus and Moslems identify each other during Partition (1947)? I still cant tell by looking at a south asian on the street whether hes Moslem or Hindu.

Lastly, the "sand nigger" slur:

Well, only an imbecile would lump Orientals, South Asians and Blacks in the same category. My guess is that most people who have never seen a non-white face in their lives would react this way by referring to the first non-white they see. But once theyve seen blacks, oreintals and south asians, they wont obviously keep doing the same thing.

Posted by: Peter Phillips at September 23, 2003 10:37 AM


Hindus and Moslems identify each other during Partition

1) they knew each other
2) they lived in certain neighborhoods
3) they dressed in certain ways (also, beards are more a muslim thing unless you are a hindu holy man)
4) muslims are circumcised, hindus are not (males)

Posted by: razib at September 23, 2003 12:14 PM


Muslims in Europe are circumcised too. ;)

Posted by: Peter Phillips at September 23, 2003 02:57 PM


"Sand Nigger"

Whenever I hear this I think of the scene in "Three Kings" that's a perfect takeoff of American-style PC:

"I don't want to hear terms like "sand nigger" or "dune coon" when we have "towel head" as a perfectly acceptable substitute!"

Posted by: jimbo at September 23, 2003 06:51 PM


yeah, hear towel head now & then, though camel jockey was always more popular with the cowboys at my high school....

Posted by: razib at September 23, 2003 07:06 PM


Check out this article on the West 'invading' Indonesia:
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/southeast/09/22/indonesia.values/index.html

FHM is expected to be hugely popular there.

Posted by: R at September 23, 2003 09:57 PM


The conflict is going to be between the native white population and the "other". Please remember that in conflicts of this nature, people stop being nuanced. Yes you cant argue that blacks arent mostly Moslem but Christian but who gives a goddamn? There are black Muslims and thats enough to have them in the enmy camp.
I don't buy your argument; it's just too deterministic, like a retread of the old "iron laws of history" claim. The fact is that nobody, not you, not I, knows the future, and a claim that there is even going to be a conflict, much less one of a "racial" character, is merely an a guesstimate masquerading as prophecy.

A more likely scenario, from the data I've seen about intermarriage rates in Europe, is that within two or three generations, most of the descendants of today's "non-white" populations will be indistinguishable from the broad mass of the European population.

Posted by: Hanno Buddenbrook at September 24, 2003 05:44 AM


Most Turks are white by almost any standard. When the Turks reached Turkey from Central Asia they were probably mostly Oriental. They must have intermarried with the local Byzantine subjects, who were not Muslims or Arabs.

I have met many Muslim and Christian Arabs who were white by any standard which accepts Sicilians as white. Cultural-political-legal race is a moving target with a very loose relationship to biological race as discussed here. As I recall, the Irish weren't white when they arrived.

Posted by: Zizka at September 24, 2003 09:10 AM


Aren't a lot of the North African immigrants Berbers?

Posted by: Diana at September 24, 2003 09:48 AM


zizka, i think peter is using the british model to inform his opinion-in britain, muslims are quite obviously non-white, and the british are usually fair. a large turkish population in greece and to a lesser extent italy would probably not be racially as noticeable....

Posted by: razib at September 24, 2003 02:04 PM


"A more likely scenario, from the data I've seen about intermarriage rates in Europe, is that within two or three generations, most of the descendants of today's "non-white" populations will be indistinguishable from the broad mass of the European population."

Id like to see this "data". I dont recollect seeing any "data" that Muslims are marrying whites at such a rate that we dont need to bother about Muslims. This is more horsemanure from the belly of liberal nonsense - forget about the problem, deny there is a problem and go to sleep and if your grandchildren get slaughtered by Muslim mobs, no problem - youve been culturally enriched.

"Most Turks are white by almost any standard."

Yeah by American standards Hispanics are white. Isnt it?

Its true that there is a "white population" of turks. But the majority of Muslims in Germany dont come from that part of the country which is actually "white". Most German Turks come from Anatolia. Ive been to Germany often and identifying Turks isnt difficult.

In France a good percentage of the Arabs are actually Moroccan and from observation seem to have considerable negroid blood. They are easily spotted.

Arabs are easily spotted in most of Europe. Not only because of their skin colour but also their build. Even in Greece, Arabs would be distinguishable to the discerning eye.

But Race isnt the only issue here. Islam is at least 50 percent of this huge problem.

Posted by: Peter Phillips at September 24, 2003 02:59 PM


But Race isnt the only issue here. Islam is at least 50 percent of this huge problem.

peter, i don't believe it is a simple addition of parts to get the sum, rather, without the religion, i think race would be less of a factor, but because of the religion, race becomes a factor.

Posted by: razib at September 24, 2003 05:33 PM


Well, aren't Hispanics white in Europe? Or did the Spanish Armada ruin that? And are the Irish white yet in Britain? Inquiring minds want to know. (When people say Hispanic in the US what they mean is usually "mestizo" -- Spanish-speaking mixed-race)

On a different site I made a joking query about the Welsh, since one of my great-grandfathers was Welsh. Within about two posts real bitterness was expressed by the Welshmen on the thread. Here in the US not one person in a hundred has any idea who the Welsh are, much less how to identify one by name or appearance -- and why should anyone?. (EG, how many people know or care that "Morgan" is a Welsh name?) But in Britain that distinction is apparently still hot.

Disentangling human genetics, racial-realist or otherwise, from local ethnic resentments ought to be more of a priority here.

I don't doubt that Germans can easily distinguish Turks. They have those little genetic mustaches. I have an American friend who ended up shaving off his little mustache in order to travel more easily there.

Posted by: Zizka at September 24, 2003 06:44 PM


well, american hispanics (latinos) are about 25-50% indigenous american (non-european) with a small amount of african heritage-so comparing them and turks in relation to whites is pretty peculiar. and i know about the dark welsh stereotype-i used to be obssessed with welsh people. descent of men has a chapter on this issue, the author is of welsh origin. the ancient romans thought that the peoples of wales (cymbria i think) were related to iberians (spaniards), and it turns out that the welsh do seem to have some relationship to basques and other ancient european lineages.

Posted by: razib at September 24, 2003 07:08 PM