« Anatolia again.... | Gene Expression Front Page | Small Problem »
December 13, 2003

African AIDS

Interesting article in this week's Spectator (UK) by Rian Malan, headed 'Africa isn't dying of AIDS'. Here's a link.

The gist of it is that estimates of the incidence of HIV infection and deaths from AIDS in Africa are grossly exaggerated. They are not based on actual observed infection rates among representative samples, but on elaborate computer models which incorporate dubious assumptions. When the predictions are checked against hard data (such as infection rates among South African prison inmates), the predictions turn out to be wildly wrong. But the 'AIDS etablishment' has a vested interest in promoting exaggerated estimates.

I have no idea if this is true, but Malan presents a good case and he is not one of the 'HIV doesn't cause AIDS' nutters. It reminds me a bit of the mad-cow fiasco in the UK. A few years ago the 'experts' were predicting that hundreds of thousands of people might die of the human form of mad-cow disease (variant CJD). But actual deaths seem to have peaked at around 25 a year, and the 'experts' have quietly scaled down their estimates of total deaths to maybe a few thousand - and even this is probably still an exaggeration.

Posted by David B at 03:38 AM