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July 21, 2004

Strange statistics

In India, Muslim women can expect to have 3.6 births, while Hindus can expect 2.8 (source). Often birthrate can be viewed as a proxy for a general evaluation of the status of women in a particular subculture. Muslims in India tend to be poorer and less advanced than Hindus. So, it is with some surprise that I saw the following from Conrad Barwa:


...according the latest National Family Health Survey figures that are available for 1998-99 infant mortality amongst Muslims is 59/1000 much lower than that amongst Hindus at 77/1000; more glaringly when disaggregated at a gender-specific level and fitted into an econometric model this data revealed that differences in male-infant mortality was marginal and not statistically significant between Hindu and Muslim families (4.5% and 4.7% respectively) but was large and statistically significant for female-infant mortality (6.3% and 4.6% respectively)....

The prevelance of dowry among Hindus in comparison to Muslims might go a long way to explaining this difference, but what I want to reflect on is the long term arc of Hindus & Muslims in India in the light of these statistics. I am rather skeptical of group selectionist/functionalist conceptions of social evolution and competition. But, the statistics above are faintly reminiscent of the line of argument presented in Rod Stark's The Rise of Christianity, that is, demographic factors helped drive the rise of Christianity in the pagan Roman Empire as Christian practices were more conducive to long term fecundity. This is somewhat disturbing in light of the empirical reality that Hindu India has been more successful in fostering a liberal political culture than any Muslim country....

Addendum: Genetic evidence seems to imply a long-term history of "hypergamy" in South Asia, with the upward rise of low status women.

Addendum II: Also, I am cautious about making long term projections. After all, Southern Europeans now have the world's lowest birthrates, but a few generations ago were rather fecund in comparison to Northern Europeans. Similarly, the birthrates among Catholics in Ireland and Northern Ireland have dropped a great deal, while Indians in Fiji used to have higher birthrates than Native Fijians while today that situation is reversed.

Posted by razib at 07:16 PM