I don't blog much on politics, but as the election comes 'round, and I catch some of the debates and Internet scuttlebutt, I am "surprised" at how much folks emphasize the externals as influencers on political ideology, when there is ample evidence that our political orientation (which is, in part, an outgrowth of personality) is largely influenced genetically, and that there is little evidence for a massive environmental effect, such as a debate might have (see here for a nice general review). While debates might be important in the primaries, where, ostensibly, the candidates from a given party have similar ideology, at the national level, the difference between the two parties is too vast (see, for example) for a debate to do much but provide entertainment value.

While people do switch party affiliations and there might be some that pick their candidate via what they see on the tele, I would wager that a large portion of informed Americans have already made up their mind long before November ever rolls around. Moreover, I would also venture that, sans for times of extenuating circumstances (e.g., war), the way they vote in any given election, will largely mirror both the way they have voted for the past x elections, and the future y elections, as well.