Children, the ideal vs. the realized internationally
I looked at data from the World Values Survey in terms of the actual proportion of those in the age group 30-49 for various countries who have 2 or fewer children, vs. those in that age group who thought 2 or fewer was the ideal number. I aggregated Wave 3 and Wave 4 surveys, so the times range from 1995 to 2002. Data, etc., below.
Now a chart, here’s how you’d read it: Top of the Y axis = low fertility in the 30-49 age group (lots of people with 2 or fewer children) To the right of the X axis = nations with low fertility preferences in the 30-49 age group (lots of people who think 2 or fewer children is the ideal) The line represents X = Y. So nations above the line are those where there is more ideal preference for children than the reality, while nations below the line there is more reality, so to speak, than the ideal. There seems to be a situation where in many nations people want more children than they are having. That is, their avowed preference is greater than what is revealed by their behavior. There are general clusters. The “breeder nations,” where people do have many children, but want even more, and the other set where populations are underperforming even their mild expectations. No surprise that the post-Communist nations are in the second category, but interestingly the East Asian nations of Japan and South Korea fall into this range. Interestingly, these are also nations which tend to be rather secular for their social conservatism from a Western perspective. Georgia is not a typo, though I wouldn’t be surprised there was a problem with the data (it might be coded or entered incorrectly). Then there are nations where people have more children than they want. Iran has some specific historical conditions which can explain this. During the Iran-Iraq War the Iranian leadership was pro-natalist, but in its wake they have strongly encouraged family planning. Iran is now a sub-replacement nation when it comes to fertility. Vietnam and India have experienced economic turnarounds of late due to their relatively late entrance into the game of globalization. These surveys occurred around the year 2000, about 10 years into both of their liberalization programs. One might be seeing the outcomes of earlier norms overlain upon new mores due to international media. Finally, as far as Bangladesh goes, it is an ethnically and religiously homogeneous nation, so there isn’t a national imperative whereby ethnic groups worry about other groups outbreeding them. Additionally, it is very, very, crowded. There are many poor African nations, but aside from Rwanda and Burundi, all of them are far below the Malthusian parameters when it comes to primary production in relation to Bangladesh.
Proportions surveyed for those in age group 30-49
2 or fewer children
2 or fewer children “ideal”
Difference between actual and ideal
Bangladesh
43.9
90.1
-46.2
India
43.5
74.7
-31.2
Vietnam
58.3
85.2
-26.9
Iran
52.8
73
-20.2
Turkey
48.7
63.9
-15.2
China
82.9
93.3
-10.4
Peru
54.3
62.3
-8
Mexico
46.2
53.2
-7
Taiwan
53.9
59.4
-5.5
Egypt
34.4
37.2
-2.8
El Salvador
46.8
48.3
-1.5
Czech
80.5
81.9
-1.4
Great Britain
77
78.2
-1.2
Puerto Rico
57.4
58.2
-0.8
Uruguay
64.1
64.3
-0.2
Venezuela
50.7
50.7
0
Germany
84.2
83.9
0.3
Romania
82.1
81.8
0.3
Slovakia
75.4
71.1
4.3
Azerbaijan
64
57.4
6.6
Brazil
62.6
55.9
6.7
Morocco
58.1
50.5
7.6
Chile
61.8
53.9
7.9
USA
70
61.1
8.9
Switzerland
80.5
71.2
9.3
Bulgaria
88.7
79.2
9.5
Argentina
55.8
46.3
9.5
Albania
62.1
52.5
9.6
Australia
70.6
60.9
9.7
Spain
82.3
72.5
9.8
Indonesia
48.1
37.8
10.3
Colombia
62.6
51.4
11.2
South Africa
58.4
47
11.4
Hungary
80.2
68.5
11.7
Iraq
28.8
16.9
11.9
Belarus
91.4
79
12.4
Ukraine
88.2
75.6
12.6
Pakistan
53.7
39.8
13.9
Russia
89.6
75.2
14.4
Poland
69.3
54.8
14.5
Jordan
26
11.5
14.5
Philippines
39.6
23.5
16.1
Canada
75.1
58.5
16.6
Finland
75.3
58.3
17
Sweden
74.6
57.2
17.4
Uganda
31.5
12.4
19.1
Saudi Arabia
39.4
20.1
19.3
South Korea
81.6
61.9
19.7
Slovenia
84.2
64
20.2
New Zealand
66.7
46.3
20.4
Zimbabwe
34.7
11.3
23.4
Macedonia
82.4
56.9
25.5
Singapore
79.9
54.4
25.5
Dominican Republic
48.9
23.3
25.6
Tanzania
43.1
17.4
25.7
Kyrgyzstan
49
21.9
27.1
Lithuania
85
57.7
27.3
Moldova
71.5
43.6
27.9
Armenia
64.9
36.8
28.1
Bosnia
81.9
53.4
28.5
Estonia
85.4
55.3
30.1
Nigeria
37.3
5.7
31.6
Croatia
82.3
46.4
35.9
Japan
77.5
41.5
36
Latvia
83.3
46
37.3
Serbia
79.4
39.9
39.5
Georgia
78.3
18.6
59.7
Labels: culture, World Values Survey
Moving from looking at a single country or handful of countries — which side of the line they’re on — the entire cloud shows that what explains differences across countries in realized fertility is differences in the # of kids that women on the ground desire — and that’s basically it.
Although not heavily publicized, this result has been well documented already:
http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/1273.html
So much for the idea of the patriarchy — in fertility, what women say goes.
(Ah yes, the patriarchy brainwashes them at an early age to want something that they really don’t deep down, or inscribes their desires on the blank slate of their mind. It’s invisible, microbial patriarchy.)
I saw a German news report showing that 40% of German women over 40 wanted more children (a little late on the decision).
20 years ago German teens, male and female, reported on average wanting 2 children. That generation failed to achieve that.
Now German teens report slightly more than one. Wonder what they will achieve.
Thanks for the data.
“So much for the idea of the patriarchy — in fertility, what women say goes.”
That idea reminds me of the rise of single motherhood. Many see contraception as the answer. I don’t see how that can work when the woman wants a kid. I mean the media, and schools, doctors and gov’t promote contraceptives, and indeed the number of childless 40 year old women in the US has doubled from 10% in the 70′s to 20% in the 90′s. Unfortunately this seems to be more appealing to smart women than it is to the others. A smart woman is less likely to choose single motherhood, and more likely to exercise control over her life for her own benefit and benefit of her children.
Since feminists don’t wish to decry single motherhood which is strongly associated with poverty and other poor outcomes for children, they therefore complain of teen pregnancy, which is probably as low as is humanly possible, certainly lower than it ever has been, especially given that sex is a normal part of life and that women want children.
Patriarchy reduces single motherhood and child poverty more than it does teen pregnancy. Feminism reduces fertility and teen pregnancy while increasing single motherhood (mostly among the incompetent) and child poverty.
The Georgian data may be accurate. They had a literal baby boom (a 20% increase in births) in 2008. The patriarch of Georgia is being given credit for it (not for actually fathering the children; rather, he promised in 2007 to personally baptize the third or higher order child of any Georgian woman), but it’s been suggested that the recent turnaround in the Georgian economy played a role too. Anyway, the sudden boom in births following the economic turnaround would seem to support the idea that Georgia has a relatively high desired fertility rate which economic circumstances prevent the population from achieving.
Agnostic,
Well, patriarchy can socialize women into desiring more children by linking social status with motherhood – as seems to be the case among certain religious fundamentalist sects here in the U.S. – and trap other women into having more children than they want by restricting access to contraception. I’ve heard in Africa that one reason for the gap between desired and actual fertility (the latter being higher) is that in some societies, men refuse to support women’s efforts to limit family size. Agreed that in most cases female preference is the most important variable though.
Part of the reason why most countries are above the line is probably that the survey asks people from ages 30-49. At age 30, a lot of people aren’t done having kids yet (I wasn’t), so a 30 year old who wants 3 kids, and who eventually has them, will be above the line if they have only 1 kid so far.