An Effect of Obama’s Cairo Speech?

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Price of “Ahmadinejad to Win Iranian Election” on Intrade:

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  1. Intrade had British PM “Gordon Brown to quit by 30 June” on 95. 
     
    That’s hilariously bad. 
     
    Everyone who knows anything knows he’s not going to quit voluntarily, and is unlikely to be removed by the party, not least as quickly as the end of this month. 
     
    Crowds are generally stupid in real time and only ever have wisdom in hindsight.

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