Posts with Comments by Morstern

Natural selection and economic growth

  • - vulcanized rubber and the spreading use of condoms (mid 1800's) - The pill (early 1960's) That one can now focus more on education (mainly applies to women, but also to men that could not even with the help of extended family support children) is the after effect. The scale effect with competition produces progress in populations with a higher base IQ. The quality factor is subjective with regards to being tied to IQ. If the land is scarce in resources then being stronger is perhaps better as you can kill and take from your competitors. Brawn is the champion of quality in that case. Lies and the ability to con from others could lead to the quality factor in some populations. I think a slightly modified model of scale with regards to a population's base will give a better result that can be applied across all populations. Regardless of my very narrow scoped comments I think the graphs you posted still show reasonable expectations of where we as a worldly people are heading. I just think the cause and effects of the models are a little off. Back to birth control for a minute though. I do not believe that education has pushed people to breed less for some advantage of quality. Instead I think it is simply that the brighter man has always molded nature as best as he could. With current technologies related to reproduction, this is very easy to do. Now (last 30 something years?) you have a culture in which baby making is more often looked down upon as if it is a thing the poor do. (An exception would be Utah where it is still rather popular/expected that you have a family.) Lastly sorry for such a poorly worded response. I have a seminar to attend and you subject was rather large as it is outside of my daily readings. I may give it another look when I return.
  • The Fertility J-Curve

  • This is more a question of psychology. Genetic only with regard to the correlation with higher IQ nations/people. In Germany the government has Kindergeld, ELterngeld,a former Baukindergeld (now incorporated into other programs), and many smaller programs. But they can't get an increase in the rates of ethnic Germans (note: lower social economic Germans still have more kids than higher social economic Germans). They also have a healthy Hartz IV (welfare) for people. The problems in Germany and the rest of Europa are more to do with psychological issues which include economic perceptions. Far as these numbers coming up in the future... yes they will. This will happen when the native populations are replaced with a higher reproducing people. Currently 30 percent of Germans under 15 have an immigrations background. This doesn't really reflect the coming of an increase in reproduction though as many of these are still from European populations. For some comparisons on population growth look at 1950s Africa which was estimated at near 230 million people. In 2010 just over 1 billion and in 2050 projected to be just shy of 2 billion. Europe in comparison was 1950: 547mil.; 2010 732 mil; and project for 691 mil in 2050. Survival of the fittest will replace the higher IQ populations for their lack of reproductive desires.
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