I wonder if virtual reality might be better modeled as an epidemic than as the end to all society. A few non-VR dissenters + exponential growth should pretty effectively eliminate VR as a problem after enough generations, especially if the dissenters cut the feeding tubes after their growth gives them enough power to eliminate the freeloaders. After a few cycles of this there ought to be fairly strong cultural and genetic barriers to future VR escapism. It doesn't matter if the "cultural barriers" involve fantasies about divine beings as long as the babies keep getting produced. If you assume that intelligent life evolves "quickly" (eg. within a few billion years) wherever it is possible then its not to hard to believe that we are the first in our general region of the universe.

I agree that an unmodified biological organism would probably find the transit time to be daunting. I would still expect a sufficiently advanced intelligence to send out von Neumann probes, but they might be hard for us to see, especially if they are hiding.