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April 02, 2003

Back in the real world....

SARS might trigger a world-wide recession! Well, well.... FuturePundit, as always, is keeping an eye on the bug (also, see here & here).

As far as I'm concerned, no hand-shaking & touching public surfaces for me-and at least if it goes airborne it will probably be less virulent.

Update: Details on the Chinese government incompetance & cover-up.

Posted by razib at 08:58 PM

I think that we are witnessing a global realignment. The post-industrial US is about to lose its global dominance and the US dollar will lose value against other currencies.

The US just provoked a war at the behest of Israel and the Zionist lobby a week or so ago (Let's be real; There are no other beneficiaries.), incurring the hatred and suspicion from most of the world. It remains to be seen if America can even win the war against Iraq. After 1000 casualties the US public will get cold feet. If Sadam reaches that magic number he might be in the clear.

Posted by: Sporon at April 2, 2003 11:03 PM

If you read the last month of Brad Delong, there are lots and lots of reasons for a global recession. Japan and Europe have been stagnant for some times, it turns out that China was never the growth engine it seemed (cooked books, as I understand), and the US is losing traction.

When you say "trigger", that vaguely assumes that without the trigger the event wouldn't have happened. This sounds to me as if they're preparing their cover story and scapegoat for when the event happens. At a certain point, practically anything can trigger certain kinds of event. The wrong team winning the NCAA, for example.

Posted by: zizka at April 3, 2003 10:17 AM

I talked to Paul Ewald about SARS a couple of days ago. Evolution tends to favor milder strains of respiratory bugs, but it takes time. A new virulent strain may spread a long way before moderating.
The simnplst guide is history: what has happened, can happen. So you want to look at the 1918 flu epidemic, the English Sweat epidemics, etc.

Posted by: gcochran at April 5, 2003 07:41 AM