Having it all

For a woman to “have it all” (i.e. an ambitious career, a loving marriage, well-adjusted children), it helps if her husband gives up his own chance to do so.

Betsy Morris, “Trophy husbands”, Fortune, 2002 October 14.

Behind a great woman at work, there is often a great man at home….The men we’re talking about carpool the kids, coach the soccer team, pay the bills, pick up the dry cleaning, and fix dinner.
….
Nobody has measured how widespread this phenomenon is among well-educated, high-salaried couples….[S]ays Doreen Toben, CFO at Verizon, “almost all the senior women [here] have husbands at home.” So do many women at Sun Microsystems. Of the 187 participants at FORTUNE’s Most Powerful Women in Business Summit last spring, 30% had househusbands. And of the 50 women on this year’s list, more than one-third have a husband at home either full- or part-time….Anne Stevens says she knows of at least 20 women in her division at Ford whose husbands are home.
….
So maybe it’s not only[?] a glass ceiling that has kept so few women from reaching the upper tier of corporate America; only 6% of the FORTUNE 500’s very top jobs–senior vice president and above–are held by women, according to Catalyst. Maybe it’s that not enough of them have the luxury most of their male counterparts have had forever [Perhaps “until recently” would be more accurate]: a spouse at home. A year ago, when Catalyst asked 3,000 women in their mid-20s to mid-30s to name the biggest barriers to women’s advancement, 68% cited personal and family responsibilities. That compares with 50% who blamed lack of mentoring, 46% who said lack of experience, and just 45% who cited stereotyping of women’s roles and abilities. “A precondition to having more women in positions of power is to have more sharing in [Read: transfer] the burdens of parenthood,” says Dublon. “It is crucial.”Because the onus usually falls on the female half of a marriage, feminists have tried to deny the obvious benefit of having a parent devoted full-time to child-rearing and other duties associated with homemaking.The dividends for these working wives–peace of mind, no distractions, the ability to focus single-mindedly on work–are precisely the ones their male counterparts have always had….That theme echoes all through the corps of executive women…”I’m more balanced and productive because I know [my daughters] are with [my husband],” [Lauri Shanahan, general counsel at Gap,] says. “It makes a huge difference”….”I don’t know how people with two full-time, unforgiving careers manage the small stuff,” says [Sarah Fitts, a lawyer with the firm Debevoise & Plimpton].

For better or worse, it is possible for these executives to be on call 24/7–which is still what it takes to get to the top at most companies….”Would I have reached the same position if I had gone home [from meetings that were supposed to end at 7 p.m. but lasted until ten]? That’s a question I can’t answer,” says Dina [Dublon, CFO of J.P. Morgan Chase]. “But one of the criteria was your willingness to stay and do whatever needed to get done, irrespective of anything else in your life.”
….
The higher you go in corporate America, the harder it is to keep two high-octane careers on track, especially when you have children.The person who subordinates her family life to her work life will always professionally outcompete someone who won’t. That’s just the way things are and no amount of legislation can ever change that.[A]mong the most powerful women–and many other high-level women–[househusbands are] a red-hot topic. They gossip about it. They marvel at it. They compare notes. They know which colleagues have husbands at home and which do not. They know which are married to doctors: Shelly Lazarus and Meg Whitman. (Doctors travel infrequently and can often set their own hours.) They are envious of women whose husbands have retired….Carly Fiorina, chairman and CEO of Hewlett-Packard [says of her husband] “Frank has been a huge source of support. He had a very successful career and has lots of interests outside of me and my career. He has been a rock for me; I am tremendously lucky. To describe him as a stay-at-home husband is not fair to him.” Frank Fiorina took early retirement in 1998 as a vice president of AT&T’s corporate business unit.
….
When [the family of Pat and Steve Sueltz, both VPs at IBM] moved to California [so Pat could take a job offer at Sun Microsystems], Steve had no trouble finding a finance job at Siebel Systems. “New company. New job. Everything’s booming,” he says. But Pat was never home during the week, and Steve was rarely home on weekends. “We were losing Kathleen [now in seventh grade],” says Pat. “She was miserable.” The Sueltzes spent several months debating what to do. Could one or the other get home earlier? Should one or the other switch jobs? Should Steve become a consultant to give him more flexibility? Ultimately, Steve made the decision to stay home–despite his pedigrees (Phi Beta Kappa at Occidental, Stanford MBA), despite his career success.I don’t know whether the author is oblivious or playing dumb, but the examples she cites establish a consistent pattern: alpha females marry – surprise, surprise – alpha males.

Feminism here has degenerated into an insistence that not only do women have a right to cake, but also an inalienable right to eat it. Feminists are contorting themselves to avoid acknowledging that a situation they lament (the dearth of women with corner offices) is best addressed by correcting the sexist attitudes of women.

The retired alpha males of this article are the exception, not the rule, and the typical career woman is not looking for a nice boy who’ll stay home with the kids.

If a feminist sincerely wants to see more women in the echelons of power, then should she find herself giving Wellesley’s commencement speech, she should enjoin her audience to, in the words of Jon Lovitz, “lower your standards”.*

* Mr. Lovitz has apparently convinced former model and current plastic surgery abuser Janice Dickinson, who has described him as “one hot stud muffin“. I offer my most profuse apologies for the mental image.

Posted by jeet at 11:12 PM

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IQ and the Non-Integrating Gap

Thomas Barnett, author of The Pentagon’s New Map (an excellent book), developed a new grand strategy loosely based on economic interdependence theory, as I’m sure many of you are aware of. I won’t go into much detail here, but I’ll give a brief, very generalized, overview of his idea. You can read more about it at his site or by reading this essay, which inspired the book.

He separated the world into two zones, the Functioning Core and the Non-Integrating Gap. The Functioning Core was defined by “connectness,” in that all the different countries that composed it traded with each other and generally accepted what he called a “rules set,” a set of practices that maintained a good amount of order and minimized warfare, while promoting economic growth. Those who did not accept the “rules set” and acted outside of the Functioning Core were members of the Non-Integrating Gap. In the Non-Integrating Gap, human rights abuses are common, wars abound, the economy is in the dumps, and poverty is high, among other things. From the Non-Integrating Gap is where most of the trouble in the world was coming from and in order for the Core to be safe, they must work to eventually eliminate the Gap entirely.

Here is an image of the Non-Integrating Gap (I had a better world map version, but I lost it and the US News & World Report site doesn’t have a copy):

As you can see, the Non-Integrating Gap is composed of a host of trouble-making and failed states. To get a more detailed view of the globe on the left, click here, and for the globe on the right, click here (warning, both of these are very large JPG files).

As far as I’m concerned, this is absolutely fascinating, and I encourage everybody to read his book and all the stuff on his website, and maybe we can even put a link up to his blog on here.

Anyways, I remember looking at another map a while back from the London Times that was based on Lynn’s and Vanhanen’s IQ and the Wealth of Nations showing the IQs of the world and their respective GDPs. Here it is:

So, as I was looking at this map, I immediately thought of Barnett’s book and I had a friend of mine, Aaron, draw me the Non-Integrating Gap on the IQ map, and this is what we got:

iqgap.JPG

Stunning, isn’t it? Aaron did a pretty good job of it, although he put Pakistan in the N-IG. I know probably most everyone who reads this blog already had a mental image of this, but to see it on a map just makes Barnett’s and Lynn’s books more relevant.

How many correlations can you think of?

Posted by Arcane at 06:58 PM

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Jewish union promotes genetic screening

In an interesting article from Vanderbilt Hustler, a speaker from Genzyme Corporation urges students, especially ethnically Jewish students, to have themselves genetically screened for hereditary diseases.

“For people in general to get screened for genetic problems in advance before having children is important,” Baer said. He urged Jewish students to get tested since they are susceptible to several diseases, including Tay-Sachs and Gaucher.

“There are certain genetic diseases that Jews from particular regions are more susceptible to. Non- Jews can suffer, but there’s a greater chance for Jews to get these. A rabbi would probably expect a Jewish couple to have been tested before getting married so they know they’re not carriers,” Baer said.

The idea that a group of speakers, especially Jewish speakers (being that Jews are generally left-leaning in their political worldviews, although that is slowly changing), are admitting to the fact that certain ethnic groups and races are more likely to inherit certain genetic problems and are more susceptible to certain diseases is fantastic!

This is progress!

Posted by Arcane at 12:12 AM

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Lightning, Bacteria, Life and Genetics

[Crossposted from GeneticFuture.org] – What do lightning and bacteria have to do with one another? Quite a bit, it turns out…

Global Gravy

To begin with, lightning and bacteria share the important job of providing the fundamental food for all of life on Earth: fixed nitrogen. Plants eat the nitrogen, animals eat the plants, and then the most barbarous of us animals eat one another. Pull nitrogen out of the pyramid, and the whole thing collapses.

nitrogen-cycle.gif

Our atmosphere stores a significant portion of our planet’s reserve of pure nitrogen (N2). That said, most plants can’t eat nitrogen until it gets fixed in some other compound, such as nitrate (NO3-), ammonia (NH3), or urea (NH2)2CO. As of today, we only know of two mechanisms in nature that facilitate the creation of these compounds:

Nitrifying Bacteria – which do the dirty work of turning plant and animal excretions and dead organisms into ammonia. Farther down the line, additional bacteria convert some of this ammonia into nitrites (NO2-) and nitrates (NO3-). Lightning – which, as it blasts a path through the atmosphere, splits apart nitrogen molecules. The resulting promiscuous nitrogen atoms combine with oxygen to form nitrogen oxides (NO3-). Rain dissolves these into nitrates, which then wash to the surface of the Earth.

Lightning and bacteria — strange bedfellows, don’t you think? But wait, it gets weirder yet…

Genetic Partners-in-Slime

If the above recapitulation of the Nitrogen Cycle was yesterday’s news for you, then you might find this factoid more interesting: Bolts of lightning appear to be responsible for facilitating gene transfer in soil bacteria. From New Scientist’s website:

Scientists commonly use electricity to increase the permeability of bacterial cell membranes, making it easier to insert DNA. Now Sandrine Demanèche’s team at the University of Lyon has provided the first evidence that nature may have been wise to this trick all along.

The researchers seeded soil samples with the E. coli bacterium, as well as fragments of DNA containing genes for antibiotic resistance. They zapped the soil with a simulated lightning strike, and found that many of the bacteria had acquired the resistance genes.

Bacteria are already known to take up and use foreign DNA released into the environment when other organisms die. Scientists knew this “horizontal gene transfer” occurs naturally in soil, but thought it was relatively rare. However, recent genomic research indicates that this gene take-up is widespread and has played a major role in the evolution of the bacterial genome.

“This result might help explain the discrepancy between the very low observed rates of gene transfer and the apparently wide distribution of DNA sequences among bacteria,” says team member Timothy Vogel.

Yay lightning! Yay bacteria! And yow, what a kick in the pants when you appreciate how little we know about how genes go about spreading themselves. After all, if there is one thing genes “want”, it’s to get Somewhere Else. As such, the kinds of biological mechanisms genes code for will tend to express weirder and weirder means of gene transference as sex and pollination reach their natural limits…

Thanks to j.kimball’s nitrogen cycle summary for the above diagram, and for refreshing my high-school biology understanding on this matter. Posted by canton at 10:21 AM

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A load of Rawls

Long ago, when I made a post on Heroes and Villains, [000188] someone suggested I should deal with some more recent examples.

I remembered this recently when there was a discussion of John Rawls and his famous Theory of Justice. This prompted me to take another look at the book and set out some thoughts on it.

Hero or villain? Read on to find out…

I’m sure everyone has read Rawls’s book (ho, ho), but here is a brief summary. (Page references are to the Oxford paperback edition, 1973, and numerous reprints).

According to Rawls a society is ‘a cooperative venture for mutual advantage’ (4). A set of principles of ‘justice’ and ‘fairness’ is needed ‘for assigning basic rights and duties and for determining… the proper distribution of the benefits and burdens of social cooperation’ (5). The main ‘goods at the disposition of society’ are ‘rights and liberties, powers and opportunities, income and wealth’ (62, 92) The principles of justice are to be agreed once and for all, and recognised as binding in advance of their application (4, 11, 12, 99, 115). To determine these principles Rawls proposes an extension of the traditional concept of the social contract: ’they are principles that free and rational persons concerned to further their own interests would accept in an initial position of equality as defining the fundamental terms of their association’ (11). In order that this hypothetical ’original position’ should be genuinely equal, Rawls argues that it is necessary that the parties should be ignorant of their social position, class, natural assets and abilities (including intelligence), and anything else which might distinguish their judgement of their own interest from that of any other party (12, 136-142). This is the postulate of the ’veil of ignorance’. Given these assumptions, Rawls argues that rational people placed in this ’original position’ and acting in their own interest would agree on the basic principle that ’all social values – liberty and opportunity, income and wealth, and the bases of self-respect – are to be distributed equally unless an unequal distribution of any, or all, of these values is to everyone’s advantage’ (62). Since the parties are in a state of equal ignorance about their own prospects, they have no reason to accept any inequality of distribution, unless they can be sure that they themselves will gain from such inequality. Rawls supports this conclusion by appealing to the ’maximin’ principle: in a state of uncertainty, it is rational to choose the option for which the worst possible outcome is the best among all the alternatives (152-57). The practical implication of this principle of ‘justice’ is that income and wealth should be redistributed through taxation (278-80) unless and until any remaining inequality improves the position even of the worst-off (for example by providing incentives to economic efficiency and enterprise).

So much for the theory. Here are what I think are the key objections to it:

1. The original social contract theory of Hobbes and Locke is open to many criticisms, but it does have the merit of offering a solution to a real problem: why should we give up the freedom we would enjoy in a state of nature, and submit to laws and government? The social contract theorists replied that the freedom of the ‘state of nature’ would lead, in Hobbes’s terms, to a war of all against all. It is therefore in the interests of everyone to accept limitations on their freedom and agree with each other to submit to laws, to be enforced by an authority stronger than any individual. It need not be supposed that any actual group of individuals (now or in the past) has literally made such an agreement: the point is that it would be in their interest to do so if the need arose. It is always possible that existing institutions could break down and society dissolve into a ‘state of nature’ – and current events in Iraq show that Hobbes’s ‘war of all against all’ is not as far from reality as his critics have supposed. The social contract theory therefore provides an on-going justification for the restriction of freedom involved in submitting to law and government.

The variant of social contract theory offered by Rawls lacks this merit. His question is not ‘why should we give up our freedom?’, but ‘how should we share the benefits of co-operation?’ Unlike the traditional question, this one does not need an answer in terms of a hypothetical social contract. The decision on how to share the benefits of cooperation can be taken by the participants in such cooperation (or by their elected representatives). People are not obliged to enter into social cooperation: they do so because they choose to, on terms which they find acceptable. To a large extent (in modern western societies) they are free to opt out of the mainstream of social and economic life if they wish to. [See Note A for a qualification.] There is no grand initial contract, but a lot of small ones. Entering into cooperation is not a surrender of freedom, but an exercise of freedom. No-one loses by it, so the question why they should do it requires no fancy answer. Rawls’s 600-page treatise is a pursuit of a giant red herring.

[Note A: Admittedly in modern societies people are compelled to pay taxes for public services which they may not want or need. Some people pay taxes far greater than the value of the services they receive. If it is asked why such people are morally obliged to pay their taxes, the short answer is that they are not, though it may be prudent or expedient to do so.]

2. A more specific objection is to the scope of ‘social cooperation’ in Rawls’s theory. He defines it so broadly as to include all the products of the economy (goods and services). Since in Rawls’s account these are part of the benefits of social cooperation, the resulting income and wealth must be distributed in accordance with the principles of ’social justice’. This implies extensive redistributive taxation.

Many critics of Rawls have pointed out that in a free economy goods and services are not produced by ’society’ or the ‘state’: they are produced by the effort and enterprise of individuals and groups of individuals (including corporations, which ultimately represent groups of risk-taking stockholders). The resulting wealth and income should therefore not be treated as a social product, to be shared among all the members of society whether or not they have contributed to it.

I think this objection is broadly correct, though a Rawlsian might reasonably say that part of the value of all goods and services should be attributed to the favourable circumstances provided by social order, property laws, and so on. However, this part of economic output can be paid for by reasonable levels of corporate taxation.

It should be noted that objection (2) is independent of objection (1). It would be possible to accept that Rawls’s argument is sound for social cooperation generally, when properly defined, (contrary to objection (1)), but to deny that economic activity falls within the scope of social cooperation.

3. Another fundamental objection is to the way that Rawls identifies the principles of social justice with the dictates of self-interest in a certain defined situation (the ‘original position‘). In ordinary linguistic usage justice has nothing to do with self-interest. Justice may happen to coincide with self-interest, but they may equally well conflict, and one of the fundamental principles of ’natural justice’, as generally recognised, is that self-interest should be excluded from judicial deliberation: no man can be a judge in his own case. To identify justice with self-interest would be an abuse of language.

It might of course be argued that in the long term the principles of justice are to everybo
dy’s benefit, even if they conflict with self-interest in particular cases. But Rawls’s approach goes beyond this: he does not merely defend the principles of social justice by an appeal to self-interest, he actually defines his principles of justice by reference to self-interest.

This is more than a verbal quibble. The principles of justice are expected by Rawls to be universal. It would be pointless for people to agree to principles of justice in the artificial circumstances of the ’original position’ if they could not be extended to other, more realistic, circumstances. But the dictates of self-interest cannot legitimately be extended in this way. What is in someone’s self-interest in one set of circumstances may be against his interest in another set of circumstances, and if self-interest is the ultimate criterion of rationality, the individual should constantly reassess his values with changing circumstances. By analogy, in Bayesian inference we might make an assumption about a probability in a state of ignorance, but we need not (and should not) continue to apply that assumption when better information is available and we know that the initial assumption was wrong. Rawls assumes that we are bound by the principles of justice that we would agree to in the circumstances of the ‘original position’ (i.e. behind the ‘veil of ignorance‘), but if ’justice’ ultimately reduces to self-interest this assumption is invalid. Rawls gives no reason, that I can see, why anyone should stick to the ’social contract’ as soon as they see that its terms are against their interest.

4. Rawls’s use of the ’veil of ignorance’ has always been one of the most controversial parts of his theory. Why should people base their decisions on a hypothetical and counterfactual state of ignorance, rather than using their actual knowledge of their own abilities and preferences? Rawls‘s defence of this fundamental assumption is remarkably feeble. He argues, first, that the veil of ignorance is necessary if there is to be any unanimous agreement at all on the principles of social distribution (140). But this is a bare assertion, and it is not obviously true. If people are aware of their abilities and preferences, would they not accept a distribution of social goods in accordance with the market value of their own contributions to society, subject perhaps to a safeguard for those whose market value would not provide a subsistence income? In any case, it is not clear that agreement to the social contract needs to be unanimous. If a majority can agree to a set of principles, the minority of dissenters might be allocated territory in proportion to their numbers and told to ’do their own thing’. Indeed, the population might split up into several different groups based on common abilities and interests, each constituting an independent society with its own rules. Arguably this would be more consistent with intuitive concepts of justice and freedom than the Rawlsian approach, which implicitly reduces everyone to the lowest common denominator. (Incidentally, I don’t think Rawls discusses the problems of territory and boundaries. Does his doctrine require redistribution of income and wealth on a global basis? If not, why not?)

The real reason for Rawls’s insistence on the veil of ignorance is to load the dice in favour of ’equality’: the veil of ignorance ’ensures that no one is disadvantaged or disadvantaged in the choice of principles by the outcome of natural chance or the contingency of social circumstances’ (p. 12, see also p. 141). But this is really prejudging the main point at issue, which is whether people are entitled to receive the benefits of their natural gifts. Rawls’s approach simply rules this out by a procedural ploy. The point at issue needs much fuller discussion on its own merits than Rawls gives it (or than I can give it here), but there would certainly be a widespread view that people are entitled to enjoy the benefits of their natural gifts, even though they have not done anything to deserve those gifts. Nature is not fair, but we cannot expect human action to redress all Nature’s inequities.

5. Finally, on a more technical level, even if we were to accept Rawls’s approach to the original position, the veil of ignorance, etc, it is not clear that the maximin principle is appropriate as the basis for individuals to assess their self-interest in the ‘original position‘. The maximin principle has acquired a certain unjustified prestige from its use in game theory, but even in game theory a maximin strategy (pure or mixed) is only the accepted ’solution’ in the special case of zero-sum games for two players, where any departure from the maximin strategy by one player is likely to be to the advantage of his opponent. Attempts to apply the maximin principle to decision theory outside the context of games have not been widely accepted (see Luce and Raiffa, Games and Decisions, chapter 13). The maximin principle implies a risk-averse approach, in which people prefer to give up the possibility of major gains if this involves any possibility of losses, however small. It is not clear that this is ‘rational’, and it is certainly inappropriate if we have some information about the relative probability of the different outcomes. It would not be ’rational’ to give up a high probability of a large gain to avoid a small probability of a small loss, but this is in effect what Rawls’s principle requires.

Rawls’s theory is presented on a very high level of abstraction, but it would be a mistake to suppose that it has had no effect on practical politics. Directly or indirectly it has been enormously influential, especially on the ’social democratic’ left. Even those who have never read Rawls derive some comfort and support from the vague feeling that redistributive taxation (aka state theft) is a matter of ’social justice’: Rawls proved it, didn’t he?

So overall, in my opinion, Rawls is definitely a villain. What I find most objectionable is not the fallacies in his reasoning, but the blatant intellectual dishonesty underlying the whole system. As Rawls himself comes close to admitting (141), the terms of the ‘original position’ and the ‘veil of ignorance’ are deliberately rigged to produce the desired result: namely, a moderate egalitarianism. I can respect those who espouse egalitarianism on overt moral grounds, but not those who try to impose it as a dogma by pretentious and artificial philosophical arguments. Ultimately, of course, moral principles cannot be proved or disproved. [See Note B for a qualification.] We can only try to elucidate their assumptions and implications. People must then make their own choice, influenced by a mixture of innate and acquired factors. Egalitarianism probably has some evolutionary basis, but one of selfishness rather than altruism: in the distribution of goods (such as the produce of a successful hunt) individuals do not want to be cheated out of their own ‘fair‘ share. Experiments have shown that even monkeys have a sense of ’fairness’, and are outraged when rewards are divided unequally. But of course people (if not monkeys) also want to be rewarded in proportion to their ’merits’, and will be dissatisfied if rewards are equal when the merits are not. Rawls’s theory is compatible with the first of these tendencies but not the second.

[Note B: as Hume first pointed out, values cannot be deduced from facts: ’ought’ cannot be derived from ’is’. However, there is an important qualification to this. It is generally recognised that there cannot be a moral obligation to do something that is beyond our power to do, such as a physical or logical impossibility. Since what is possible is a matter of fact, not value, it follows that the absence of an obligation can be derived from facts.]

Posted by David B at 04:03 AM

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The climate of Fear

Political post read it in the extended entry

-A soldier home relaxing from the Iraq war was savagely beaten by a person opposed to the war.

-In Duluth Bush signs are disappearing at a frightening rate.

Bush supporters are scared to put out signs or bumper stickers for fear of physical retaliation.

I was thinking about this today as I was driving around my old neighborhood, a usually Republican-leaning part of Portland. I saw many Kerry signs but no Bush signs, even in the lawns of people I knew supported Bush. I asked one of them about that and he informed me that he had put one out but it was stolen.

Then I remebered my own experiences. Back in 2000 I had a Bush sticker on my car, it was keyed and eventually replaced by a stranger with a Gore sticker, both acts cost me a few hundred dollars. My sister, a pugnacious conservative, had 5 signs stolen from her lawn in 5 consecutive days, culminating in a sixth one being burned on her lawn.

This is the climate of fear that we live in and one of many reasons I do not like extreme lefties (now, as a note I don’t have anything against moderate Democrats, and there are many of them). I believe it comes out of the fact that, being largely non-religious, politics is their religion. The comport themselves with an air of self-righteousness, and believe their political opponets are less than human and are deserving of no respect.

I work in the biological sciences, usually at a University, and I know conservatives and libertarians who are scared to death to let their views be known, since they know they will lose their job. One day, after hearing the most paranoid theories about Bush being bandied about by several co-workers I quiped “Don’t you guys ever get tired of the slander?” for which I was nearly brained by a heavy plastic lunchroom tray thrown at my head (which shattered amazingly), after which my red-faced coworker threatened me for ten minutes with bodily harm and had to be dragged off by another coworker.

Can’t we just all get along?

P.S I was going to call this post “Fascists for Kerry” but I think that would have been to explosive and ironically actually made my point when the attacks started in the comments.

P.P.S. I realize that this form of political intimidation goes both ways, but the intensity of it coming from the left is off the scale.

Posted by scottm at 08:59 PM

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HBU

In an earlier post one commentor mentioned the “overlapping territories of biology in terms of hbd, and history.” Eh, well, that post had little to do with human biodiversity, that is, intergroup differences. Rather, I was focusing on what I perceived to be a human universal. This has happened before on this blog, all biologistic topics seem to be slotted into “hbd,” when a lot of them don’t really fit too well into that category. In the interests of symmetry, I will introduce a neologism, human biouniversality, or hbu. Of course, there is the gray land of intragroup variation. Where you draw the line between hbd & hbu is up to your judgement, but they are definitely two ends of a spectrum.

Posted by razib at 04:14 AM

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Up from ignorance II

My post Up from ignorance elicited a lot of good responses.

First, I would like to acknowledge that my reaction (and formulation of a “solution”) was framed by the commentor on Winds of Change, and my perception of his character or intellectual life, or, more properly, the hint of a character that I perceive to be endemic among thoughtful Americans. In Innumeracy John Allen Paulos notes that while many intelligent people can imagine themselves ‘curling up’ to a biography of Samuel Johnson, a similar picture where one is deeply pondering a multivariable calculus text before a night’s rest seems implausible. There are reasons for this, math is hard. In The Number Sense Stanislas Dehaene shows that though humans have an intuitive sense of ‘numerosity,’ it is an analog facility. The implication is clear that abstract higher level mathematics requires complex cooperation between various cognitive domains in a somewhat unnatural fashion. Robin Dunbar makes a similar argument in The Trouble With Science about the more inductive but still abstraction filled (and counterintuitive) disciplines of natural science.

While there seems to be a niche for ‘science popularizers,’ who serve as the intermediaries between the scientists and the public (think Richard Dawkins channeling W.D. Hamilton), I don’t get the impression that history has the same class of individuals, as professional historians can distill and reformulate their prose and substance to satisfy a general audience with relative ease. After all, it is called history! Humans love a good yarn, and they don’t demand fidelity to the methods elaborated by Popper (or Carnap or Feyerabend or Kuhn if you prefer). That is the great temptation, to tell a good story, a tale that titillates the reader’s need for entertainment. Of course, popularizers of science can entertain, but they are constrained by the narrow lands which science traverses, and so must make generous use of metaphor and scientific biography so that the nutritious sliver of technique and result can be interspersed into the social and stylistic narrative that acts as sugar and savor.

I think the relative ease with which history passes through our intellectual system (this is a generalization) makes it easy for a certain class of Americans to believe they are “well read” or “learned” in the human sciences even if they neglect more explicitly natural scientific formulations of the human condition. Because history is filled with n ‘interpretations’ they can simply choose ni that matches their own normative preferences. For some, Bernard Lewis is a salve for their own preconceptions about a “Clash of Civilizations,” the mountains of erudition and deftly phrased general analysis cocooning their self-confidence in the “correctness” of their viewpoint.

But, all this said, I obviously was wrongheaded in the way I phrased my entry if I gave the impression that people should always start from basic truths and work their way up. The commenators were correct in that people should shift back and forth, shedding light throughout the spectrum of organization and complexity. What I truly find disconcerting is that many people simply remain at the extreme end of data richness and complexity and never veer back toward technical rigor and modular simplicity. Clearly, often knowledge progresses by:
Data -> Induction -> Hypothesis -> Test/Observation.

The elemental portion is preceded by a period of data collection, which reading narratives of history can fit easily under. It is in the stages of induction & hypothesis formulation that I think the problems crop up. You see a pattern, how do you explain the pattern? I believe too often thinkers not impacted by affinal areas of science are unconstrained in their imagination. There are real physiological and psychological limits and boundaries that are imposed on the human condition. Logic and analysis offer myriad possibilities, almost infinite, so how do you choose between the various plausible options? For example, what about the view that before the coming of Kurgan culture Europe was dominated by matriarchies? I suspect that this is a garbling of Marija Gimbutas’ already speculative and tenditious theories, but, it is a view I have noted as implicit in the works of some feminist authors. I think one can look to anthropology, psychology and the biologically oriented subdisciplines within each as to why this “historical question” is a nonquestion. This option is already highly improbable and should be left off the table for consideration and the data should be interpreted in a different manner.

But I think that the possibilities offered by the human sciences are even greater, not only negative, but positive. Recently I have posted on the importance of 150 individuals as the upper bound of human social intelligence. A Roman military historian might find a fair amount of archival evidence where generals note the importance of centurions in winning the loyalities of the troops. What does one make of this? If the historian was aware of evolutionary psychology the importance of the centurions is clear in that they personally know both the generals and the vast numbers of rankers. The data and the model point in the same direction! But without the Rule-of-150 in mind who knows what direction a scholar might go. Additionally, the Rule-of-150 offers the hope of predictive models for what type of bureaucracy is less susceptible to the inevitable process of institutional decay and collapse.

Human intellect can form innumerable models. There have been many hypotheses of how the solar system (or what we now call the solar system) was arranged. Most of them displayed an internal coherence and even fit by rough aproximation the data on hand, but only one of the models was validated by the findings of science over the long haul. Reading Spengler or Toynbee exposes one to a wealth of erudition and an enormous capacity for analysis, but in the end the richness is more entertaining than insightful (Spengler’s “organismic” conception of civilizations seems to take group selection too far). Toynbee even crosses over into the world of “alternative history” or counterfactual.

In the end what I would like to see is a genuine algebra of history. I don’t know if this is possible, but right now it is very difficult to precisely comprehend what someone means when they say “significant” or “minor influence.” Adding some numbers like the Rule-of-150 might be a first step, at least we know the precise number (within a narrow range) of this atomic unit. The size difference between the mean size of a male and the mean size of a female is “significant,” but we also know the absolute and relative values. Every scholar has their own internal definition for these sorts of proportional statements, exactitude here and there will allow the audience to calibrate the terms effectively.

Calibration. Precision. Parsimony. Concurrent validation. Building blocks for theoretical models. Those were my real points!

Posted by razib at 03:19 AM

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