I suggested below that though on average whites did not move toward the Democrats, regionally there might be differences. I inferred this from the fact that areas where blacks are thin on the ground in the South it looks as if John McCain did better than George W. Bush in 2004. So I compared the voting patterns of whites in the 2008 and 2004 elections; and there are regional differences.
2008 Democratic presidential white vote declined 15% or more vs. 2004
2008 Democratic presidential white vote increased 15% or more vs. 2004
2008 Democratic presidential white vote 10 pts or more below national white vote
2008 Democratic presidential white vote 10 pts or more above national white vote
Here are the raw data….
| Kerry | Obama | 2008-2004 abs. | 2008-2004 rel. | Local vs. Nat. | |
| National | 41 | 43 | 2 | 5% | |
| Alabama | 19 | 10 | -9 | -47% | -32 |
| Alaska | 33 | 32 | -1 | -3% | -10 |
| Arizona | 41 | 40 | -1 | -2% | -2 |
| Arkansas | 36 | 30 | -6 | -17% | -12 |
| California | 47 | 52 | 5 | 11% | 10 |
| Colorado | 42 | 55 | 13 | 31% | 13 |
| Connecticut | 51 | 51 | 0 | 0% | 9 |
| D.C. | 80 | 86 | 6 | 8% | 44 |
| Delaware | 45 | 53 | 8 | 18% | 11 |
| Florida | 42 | 42 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| Georgia | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0% | -19 |
| Hawaii | 58 | 70 | 12 | 21% | 28 |
| Idaho | 29 | 33 | 4 | 14% | -9 |
| Illinois | 48 | 51 | 3 | 6% | 9 |
| Indiana | 34 | 45 | 11 | 32% | 3 |
| Iowa | 49 | 51 | 2 | 4% | 9 |
| Kansas | 34 | 40 | 6 | 18% | -2 |
| Kentucky | 35 | 36 | 1 | 3% | -6 |
| Louisiana | 24 | 14 | -10 | -42% | -28 |
| Maine | 53 | 58 | 5 | 9% | 16 |
| Maryland | 44 | 49 | 5 | 11% | 7 |
| Massachusetts | 59 | 57 | -2 | -3% | 15 |
| Michigan | 44 | 51 | 7 | 16% | 9 |
| Minnesota | 50 | 53 | 3 | 6% | 11 |
| Mississippi | 14 | 11 | -3 | -21% | -31 |
| Missouri | 42 | 42 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| Montana | 39 | 45 | 6 | 15% | 3 |
| Nebraska | 33 | 39 | 6 | 18% | -3 |
| Nevada | 43 | 45 | 2 | 5% | 3 |
| New Hampshire | 50 | 54 | 4 | 8% | 12 |
| New Jersey | 46 | 49 | 3 | 7% | 7 |
| New Mexico | 43 | 42 | -1 | -2% | 0 |
| New York | 49 | 52 | 3 | 6% | 10 |
| North Carolina | 27 | 35 | 8 | 30% | -7 |
| North Dakota | 35 | 42 | 7 | 20% | 0 |
| Ohio | 44 | 46 | 2 | 5% | 4 |
| Oklahoma | 29 | 29 | 0 | 0% | -13 |
| Oregon | 50 | 60 | 10 | 20% | 18 |
| Pennsylvania | 45 | 48 | 3 | 7% | 6 |
| Rhode Island | 57 | 58 | 1 | 2% | 16 |
| South Carolina | 22 | 26 | 4 | 18% | -16 |
| South Dakota | 37 | 41 | 4 | 11% | -1 |
| Tennessee | 34 | 34 | 0 | 0% | -8 |
| Texas | 25 | 26 | 1 | 4% | -16 |
| Utah | 24 | 31 | 7 | 29% | -11 |
| Vermont | 58 | 68 | 10 | 17% | 26 |
| Virginia | 32 | 39 | 7 | 22% | -3 |
| Washington | 52 | 59 | 7 | 13% | 17 |
| West Virginia | 42 | 41 | -1 | -2% | -1 |
| Wisconsin | 47 | 54 | 7 | 15% | 12 |
| Wyoming | 28 | 32 | 4 | 14% | -10 |
Comments are closed.