Substack cometh, and lo it is good. (Pricing)

Paternity rates by population

A few years ago a paper came out, How Well Does Paternity Confidence Match Actual Paternity?:

Evolutionary theory predicts that males will provide less parental investment for putative offspring who are unlikely to be their actual offspring. Cross‐culturally, paternity confidence (a man’s assessment of the likelihood that he is the father of a putative child) is positively associated with men’s involvement with children and with investment or inheritance from paternal kin. A survey of 67 studies reporting nonpaternity suggests that for men with high paternity confidence rates of nonpaternity are(excluding studies of unknown methodology) typically 1.9%, substantially less than the typical rates of 10% or higher cited by many researchers. Further cross‐cultural investigation of the relationship between paternity and paternity confidence is warranted.

I’ve referred to this paper before, but I thought it might be useful to post the rates for various populations. See the original paper for sources & discussion.
Note that the second set of results from paternity testing laboratories obviously are subject to selection bias.

Table 1. Nonpaternity Rates (%) When Paternity Confidence Is Relatively High
PopulationActual  Sample Size  
Sephardic Kohanim (Jewish priests)0.4  24 
United States0.8  496 
Switzerland0.83  1607 
Ashkenazic Kohanim (Jewish priests)1.2  44 
Canada (Quebec)1.2  42 
United Kingdom1.3  48 
United Kingdom1.35  521 
United States (Michigan), white1.49  1417 
Iceland1.49  Not stated 
United Kingdom1.59  756 
Sweden2.1  63 
United States (California), white2.3  6960 
United States (Hawaii)2.8  2839 
United States2.8  200 
France2.9  362 
Mexico2.9  217 
United Kingdom (West London)3.7  2596 
Canada4  25 
France6.9-9.4  266-361 
Brazil/Venezuela (Yanomamo)9.1  132 
United States (Michigan), black10.1  523 
Mexico (Nuevo Leo´n)11.8  396 
      
Table 2. Nonpaternity Rates (%) from Paternity Testing Laboratories
Russia14.3  21 
Finland15.2  35 
United Kingdom16.6  1702 
Germany16.8  256 
Brazil (Belo Horizonte)22  200 
South Africa, white22.4  264 
United States (Cleveland)23.9  67 
United States (Los Angeles), white24.9  1393 
United States25  1000 
United States25.2  2500 
United States26  50 
Portugal27.7  83 
United States (New York City)28.7  300 
United States (Baltimore)29  124 
United States (New York City)29.4  102 
Portugal29.8  790 
South Africa, Cape Malay30.5  59 
United States (New York City), black30.6  98 
United States (Cleveland)32  200 
United States (New York City), white34.4  425 
Finland34.6  26 
United States (Illinois)37  753 
France (Paris)38.1  543 
Sweden38.7  5018 
South Africa, Cape Coloured40.1  1156 
South Africa, black31.1  645 
United States42  100 
Italy42  31 
United States (Illinois)45  37 
Sweden55  142 
United States55.6  108 
      
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