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Liberal science denialism at the ballot box

Golden Rice
Golden Rice
The two major issues where liberals in the United States get tagged as “denialist” or “anti-science” is on vaccination and GMO. A major problem with this thesis though is that in aggregate the social science doesn’t support this. I’ve used the GSS to check on GMO attitudes, and education/intelligence (or lack of) are the strongest predictors of skepticism, not ideology. And the best social science doesn’t seem to indicate strong political valence to anti-vaccination sentiment at the grassroots.

But sometimes looking at aggregates misses the important dynamics. I’d argue that the reason people keep thinking that there is a correlation between anti-vaccination opinions and anti-GMO opinions and the Left is that the the most vocal elite expositors of these positions hail from the cultural Left. Policy positions that start out non-ideological can quickly become polarized when elites lead in a particular direction.

The state of Oregon had a ballot measure on genetically modified organisms and labeling. Oregon also legalized marijuana. We have county-by-county results for both, as well as results for the governor’s race. I brought them together and generated some scatter plots. As you can see below:

1) There is a strong correlation on the county level for support for legalization of marijuana and GMO labeling (R2 is just the square of the correlation, and explains proportion of variation in Y explainable by variation in X).

2) There is a strong correlation on the county level for support for Democratic candidates and GMO labeling.

I am aware that not all of those who support GMO labeling are denalists. Some of them are scientists. But my personal experience with those who support GMO labeling (there was a measure in California a few years back) is that their rationales are inchoate, and often not “reality based” (i.e., they are more about fear than anything else). Though there is no strong political valence on the grassroots at this point, I predict that if GMO labeling keeps coming up over and over, and it becomes a social movement, you’ll see it become Left-tinged as people like Michael Pollan start polarizing opinions. Of course in some places, such as Europe, the anti-GMO position has swept society to become the dominant one.


marijgmo

Raw data:

CountyYes, MarijuanaYes, GMO labelDemocrat for governor
Baker413227
Benton605259
Clackamas514746
Clatsop575046
Columbia534543
Coos535042
Crook413129
Curry565241
Deschutes514646
Douglas454134
Gilliam412332
Grant353225
Harney342624
Hood River575459
Jackson535543
Jefferson443234
Josephine504935
Klamath443628
Lake382923
Lane605757
Lincoln625354
Linn473835
Malheur313225
Marion484241
Morrow342728
Multnomah716270
Polk474241
Sherman382328
Tillamook584547
Umatilla373229
Union413331
Wallow393528
Wasco494043
Washington554852
Wheeler363229
Yamhill504141
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