A few years ago Pew did a survey on attitudes to abortion by state, and you can see the results below in the table.
What I want to focus on is that both Kansas and Ohio have both kept most abortions legal through the popular vote. This can give us a sense of the popular mood: probably no state more liberal than them in surveyed views would approve abortion restrictions if it was a plebiscite. In fact, the victories in Kansas and Ohio, two states where the earlier poll suggested people were split, indicate that currently by popular vote only about ten states would probably be pro-life today.
Which brings me to the issue of legislatures and the parties. Oklahoma is as pro-choice a state as New Mexico on the popular level, but because Oklahoma is a very conservative Republican state, and New Mexico is a trending liberal Democratic state, their abortion policies at the opposite poles. I also want to highlight Nebraska and North Carolina, two states that are more pro-choice that Kansas and Ohio, but have very restrictive abortion laws. Finally, Florida is a very pro-choice state despite trending Republican since 2016. I think that Republican trend will be in jeopardy unless the party moderates on the abortion issue. The gap between public sentiment and the law seems too great.
| State | Legal in all/most cases | Illegal in all/most cases | Don’t know | N | Delta |
| West Virginia | 35% | 58% | 6% | 309 | 23% |
| Mississippi | 36% | 59% | 5% | 309 | 23% |
| Arkansas | 38% | 60% | 2% | 311 | 22% |
| Kentucky | 36% | 57% | 7% | 439 | 21% |
| Alabama | 37% | 58% | 4% | 511 | 21% |
| Louisiana | 39% | 57% | 4% | 465 | 18% |
| Tennessee | 40% | 55% | 5% | 661 | 15% |
| South Carolina | 42% | 52% | 6% | 495 | 10% |
| Indiana | 43% | 51% | 6% | 654 | 8% |
| Missouri | 45% | 50% | 5% | 642 | 5% |
| Texas | 45% | 50% | 4% | 2,535 | 5% |
| North Dakota | 47% | 51% | 3% | 338 | 4% |
| Utah | 47% | 51% | 3% | 315 | 4% |
| Idaho | 45% | 49% | 6% | 320 | 4% |
| South Dakota | 48% | 50% | 3% | 305 | 2% |
| Georgia | 48% | 49% | 4% | 968 | 1% |
| Wyoming | 48% | 49% | 3% | 316 | 1% |
| Kansas | 49% | 49% | 3% | 307 | 0% |
| Ohio | 48% | 47% | 4% | 1,132 | -1% |
| Arizona | 49% | 46% | 4% | 653 | -3% |
| North Carolina | 49% | 45% | 6% | 1,022 | -4% |
| Nebraska | 50% | 46% | 5% | 312 | -4% |
| New Mexico | 51% | 45% | 4% | 312 | -6% |
| Oklahoma | 51% | 45% | 4% | 391 | -6% |
| Iowa | 52% | 46% | 2% | 330 | -6% |
| Pennsylvania | 51% | 44% | 5% | 1,366 | -7% |
| Minnesota | 52% | 45% | 4% | 563 | -7% |
| Wisconsin | 53% | 45% | 3% | 600 | -8% |
| Michigan | 54% | 42% | 4% | 982 | -12% |
| Virginia | 55% | 42% | 3% | 882 | -13% |
| Illinois | 56% | 41% | 3% | 1,326 | -15% |
| Delaware | 55% | 38% | 6% | 301 | -17% |
| Florida | 56% | 39% | 5% | 2,020 | -17% |
| Montana | 56% | 38% | 5% | 312 | -18% |
| California | 57% | 38% | 5% | 3,697 | -19% |
| Colorado | 59% | 36% | 5% | 504 | -23% |
| Washington | 60% | 36% | 5% | 714 | -24% |
| New Jersey | 61% | 35% | 4% | 886 | -26% |
| Nevada | 62% | 34% | 3% | 314 | -28% |
| Alaska | 63% | 34% | 3% | 310 | -29% |
| Oregon | 63% | 34% | 3% | 419 | -29% |
| Maine | 64% | 33% | 3% | 303 | -31% |
| Maryland | 64% | 33% | 3% | 644 | -31% |
| Rhode Island | 63% | 31% | 7% | 305 | -32% |
| New York | 64% | 32% | 4% | 1,966 | -32% |
| Hawaii | 66% | 29% | 4% | 312 | -37% |
| New Hampshire | 66% | 29% | 5% | 303 | -37% |
| Connecticut | 67% | 28% | 5% | 377 | -39% |
| District of Columbia | 70% | 26% | 4% | 303 | -44% |
| Vermont | 70% | 26% | 4% | 306 | -44% |
| Massachusetts | 74% | 22% | 4% | 704 | -52% |
