Front page Wednesday, December 07, 2005 Fun with math   posted by the @ 12/07/2005 09:00:00 AM My math is a little rusty, but I wanted to offer a little statistical observation relating to ID and being dumb.Let...ID = believe in IDdumb = are dumbPrior for being dumb: talented tenth (or if you have a certain someone in mind, fill in your own prior)P(dumb) = 0.9P(~dumb) = 0.1Likelihood of believing in ID given you are dumb (or not dumb): I made these values up, but we could probably find survey data to refine those estimates. Try your own guess.P(ID|dumb) = 0.8P(ID|~dumb) = 0.4Bayes rule...P(dumb|ID) = 0.947P(dumb|~ID) = 0.750 [correction] input{width:180px; border: thin #000000 inset;} .sub{width:180px; border: thin #000000 inset;} Razib's Home Page UNZ GNXP Archives Interviews Blogroll Principles of Population Genetics Genetics of Populations Molecular Evolution Quantitative Genetics Evolutionary Quantitative Genetics Evolutionary Genetics Evolution Molecular Markers, Natural History, and Evolution The Genetics of Human Populations Genetics and Analysis of Quantitative Traits Epistasis and Evolutionary Process Evolutionary Human Genetics Biometry Mathematical Models in Biology Speciation Evolutionary Genetics: Case Studies and Concepts Narrow Roads of Gene Land 1 Narrow Roads of Gene Land 2 Narrow Roads of Gene Land 3 Statistical Methods in Molecular Evolution The History and Geography of Human Genes Population Genetics and Microevolutionary Theory Population Genetics, Molecular Evolution, and the Neutral Theory Genetical Theory of Natural Selection Evolution and the Genetics of Populations Genetics and Origins of Species Tempo and Mode in Evolution Causes of Evolution Evolution The Great Human Diasporas Bones, Stones and Molecules Natural Selection and Social Theory Journey of Man Mapping Human History The Seven Daughters of Eve Evolution for Everyone Why Sex Matters Mother Nature Grooming, Gossip, and the Evolution of Language Genome R.A. 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