Future black Republicans? Cut on the Bias pointed me to this post by Stuart Buck on possible realignment between the parties. Note what Mr. Buck says about blacks:

What about blacks? How can I suggest that they would ever vote Republican in anything but miniscule numbers? Well, blacks have switched sides before. They were strongly Republican for nearly a hundred years after Lincoln. It was really around the time of Kennedy, Johnson and Goldwater that blacks became overwhelmingly Democrats, in large part because Goldwater opposed (on grounds of constitutional authority) civil rights legislation while Kennedy and Johnson supported it. If blacks could switch from the party that freed them to the party of slavery and segregation, who's to say they won't ever switch back? Many blacks already agree with Republican positions on a host of issues -- abortion, the role of religion in society, school choice. If Republicans would pursue black votes with passion and persistence, I think it might pay off eventually.

Well-a large portion of the black middle class consists of public sector workers. A large portion of the private sector black middle class likely either owes their position to affirmative action or feels as if affirmative might have contributed to their position. So if Republicans make their peace with government employee unions and affirmative action-well, maybe Mr. Buck has a point. But at that point-I don't think the party of Reagan will be the party of Reagan anymore. (and though I grant that black Americans tend to be religiously conservative-an illegitimacy rate of 60-70% doesn't indicate behavioral conservatism in any fashion I understand)