"The Arab East" trilogy.... Check out part III of Zach Latif's "Arab East" trilogy. He comes down on the hawkish side, buttressed by a subtle and deep knowledge of the area. I'm a little less sanguine about cutting so many of the major powers in the region at their knees by removing the oil rich gulf and ceding it to a Shia dominated Arab polity. But I suspect the reality will be far less grandiose in any case....