Monday, November 04, 2002


Spot the logical fallacy Steve Sailer and I have both independently referenced a little parlor game you can play by yourself with each copy of the NY Times. Any time you see an article that mentions race (that isn't written by Nick Wade), start a mental timer and ask yourself how long it takes before you spot the logical fallacy [1]. Today's episode is another obvious yet hilarious exercise in incorrect attribution of causation. [2] Writing on a story covering the dual Chinese language instruction at Shuang Wen high school in New York City, the Times says:

Although only two of the school's first class of 45 students were not of Chinese descent, Shuang Wen gradually gained a reputation among some of the city's black middle-class parents for being nurturing yet rigorous. In last spring's citywide third-grade math and English tests, Shuang Wen ranked third in math and 23rd in English among the city's almost 1,000 elementary schools. Now, before the start of every school year, more and more black parents arrive at the office of the principal, Ling-Ling Chou, seeking admission for their children to the prekindergarten class — which is based on interviews with prospective students and their parents. They are undeterred by the fact that their children will be among the few non-Asians in the school, or that Mandarin is famously difficult to master. Chinese instruction runs from 3 to 5:30 p.m. daily. All subjects, however, are taught in both languages.

The article continues in this vein. The black parents are flocking to the school, thinking that its "nurturing yet rigorous" status is related to the content of the curriculum. Of course, the truth is that the school is good because of the Chinese in the classroom, not because of the Chinese in the curriculum. With fleetingly rare exceptions, an influx of black students means a corresponding dip in academic performance indicators, and an influx of Asians means the converse. [3] [1] Or, equivalently, the false invocation of the axiom of equality. [2] Thanks to Diane E. from Letter from Gotham for the link. [3] The story is a little more complicated. Northeast Asians and elite South Asians do very well, but Southeast Asians and a substantial fraction of the South Asian population don't do very well at all. In other words, Asian students are a bimodal group. Razib adds: When I read the article, I did note though that the parents were very motivated. These aren't your stereotypical "ghetto" types. So the quality of the school might not suffer as much as racial stereotypes would predict. Also-remember that over half the blacks in the greater-NYC area are middle-class. I wouldn't be surprised if most of the black kids that go to this school are in the top 15% of the African-American IQ range, and so map pretty well in the middle of the Asian/white bell curve. Add to that the prior self-selection of West Indian immigrants, you might be in for a surprise (though the NY Times wouldn't report the negatives being what it is).







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