I looked at data from the
World Values Survey in terms of the actual proportion of those in the age group 30-49 for various countries who have 2 or fewer children, vs. those in that age group who thought 2 or fewer was the ideal number. I aggregated Wave 3 and Wave 4 surveys, so the times range from 1995 to 2002. Data, etc., below.
Proportions surveyed for those in age group 30-49
|
| 2 or fewer children | 2 or fewer children "ideal" | Difference between actual and ideal |
| Bangladesh | 43.9 | 90.1 | -46.2 |
| India | 43.5 | 74.7 | -31.2 |
| Vietnam | 58.3 | 85.2 | -26.9 |
| Iran | 52.8 | 73 | -20.2 |
| Turkey | 48.7 | 63.9 | -15.2 |
| China | 82.9 | 93.3 | -10.4 |
| Peru | 54.3 | 62.3 | -8 |
| Mexico | 46.2 | 53.2 | -7 |
| Taiwan | 53.9 | 59.4 | -5.5 |
| Egypt | 34.4 | 37.2 | -2.8 |
| El Salvador | 46.8 | 48.3 | -1.5 |
| Czech | 80.5 | 81.9 | -1.4 |
| Great Britain | 77 | 78.2 | -1.2 |
| Puerto Rico | 57.4 | 58.2 | -0.8 |
| Uruguay | 64.1 | 64.3 | -0.2 |
| Venezuela | 50.7 | 50.7 | 0 |
| Germany | 84.2 | 83.9 | 0.3 |
| Romania | 82.1 | 81.8 | 0.3 |
| Slovakia | 75.4 | 71.1 | 4.3 |
| Azerbaijan | 64 | 57.4 | 6.6 |
| Brazil | 62.6 | 55.9 | 6.7 |
| Morocco | 58.1 | 50.5 | 7.6 |
| Chile | 61.8 | 53.9 | 7.9 |
| USA | 70 | 61.1 | 8.9 |
| Switzerland | 80.5 | 71.2 | 9.3 |
| Bulgaria | 88.7 | 79.2 | 9.5 |
| Argentina | 55.8 | 46.3 | 9.5 |
| Albania | 62.1 | 52.5 | 9.6 |
| Australia | 70.6 | 60.9 | 9.7 |
| Spain | 82.3 | 72.5 | 9.8 |
| Indonesia | 48.1 | 37.8 | 10.3 |
| Colombia | 62.6 | 51.4 | 11.2 |
| South Africa | 58.4 | 47 | 11.4 |
| Hungary | 80.2 | 68.5 | 11.7 |
| Iraq | 28.8 | 16.9 | 11.9 |
| Belarus | 91.4 | 79 | 12.4 |
| Ukraine | 88.2 | 75.6 | 12.6 |
| Pakistan | 53.7 | 39.8 | 13.9 |
| Russia | 89.6 | 75.2 | 14.4 |
| Poland | 69.3 | 54.8 | 14.5 |
| Jordan | 26 | 11.5 | 14.5 |
| Philippines | 39.6 | 23.5 | 16.1 |
| Canada | 75.1 | 58.5 | 16.6 |
| Finland | 75.3 | 58.3 | 17 |
| Sweden | 74.6 | 57.2 | 17.4 |
| Uganda | 31.5 | 12.4 | 19.1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 39.4 | 20.1 | 19.3 |
| South Korea | 81.6 | 61.9 | 19.7 |
| Slovenia | 84.2 | 64 | 20.2 |
| New Zealand | 66.7 | 46.3 | 20.4 |
| Zimbabwe | 34.7 | 11.3 | 23.4 |
| Macedonia | 82.4 | 56.9 | 25.5 |
| Singapore | 79.9 | 54.4 | 25.5 |
| Dominican Republic | 48.9 | 23.3 | 25.6 |
| Tanzania | 43.1 | 17.4 | 25.7 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 49 | 21.9 | 27.1 |
| Lithuania | 85 | 57.7 | 27.3 |
| Moldova | 71.5 | 43.6 | 27.9 |
| Armenia | 64.9 | 36.8 | 28.1 |
| Bosnia | 81.9 | 53.4 | 28.5 |
| Estonia | 85.4 | 55.3 | 30.1 |
| Nigeria | 37.3 | 5.7 | 31.6 |
| Croatia | 82.3 | 46.4 | 35.9 |
| Japan | 77.5 | 41.5 | 36 |
| Latvia | 83.3 | 46 | 37.3 |
| Serbia | 79.4 | 39.9 | 39.5 |
| Georgia | 78.3 | 18.6 | 59.7 |
Now a chart, here's how you'd read it:
Top of the Y axis = low fertility in the 30-49 age group (lots of people with 2 or fewer children)
To the right of the X axis = nations with low fertility preferences in the 30-49 age group (lots of people who think 2 or fewer children is the ideal)
The line represents X = Y. So nations above the line are those where there is more ideal preference for children than the reality, while nations below the line there is more reality, so to speak, than the ideal.
There seems to be a situation where in many nations people want more children than they are having. That is, their avowed preference is greater than what is revealed by their behavior. There are general clusters. The "breeder nations," where people do have many children, but want even more, and the other set where populations are underperforming even their mild expectations. No surprise that the post-Communist nations are in the second category, but interestingly the East Asian nations of Japan and South Korea fall into this range. Interestingly, these are also nations which tend to be rather secular for their social conservatism from a Western perspective. Georgia is not a typo, though I wouldn't be surprised there was a problem with the data (it might be coded or entered incorrectly).
Then there are nations where people have more children than they want. Iran has some specific historical conditions which can explain this. During the Iran-Iraq War the Iranian leadership was pro-natalist, but in its wake they have strongly encouraged family planning. Iran is now a sub-replacement nation when it comes to fertility. Vietnam and India have experienced economic turnarounds of late due to their relatively late entrance into the game of globalization. These surveys occurred around the year 2000, about 10 years into both of their liberalization programs. One might be seeing the outcomes of earlier norms overlain upon new mores due to international media. Finally, as far as Bangladesh goes, it is an ethnically and religiously homogeneous nation, so there isn't a national imperative whereby ethnic groups worry about other groups outbreeding them. Additionally, it is very, very, crowded. There are many poor African nations, but aside from Rwanda and Burundi, all of them are far below the Malthusian parameters when it comes to primary production in relation to Bangladesh.
Labels: culture, World Values Survey
