Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Children, the ideal vs. the realized internationally   posted by Razib @ 5/19/2009 10:49:00 PM
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I looked at data from the World Values Survey in terms of the actual proportion of those in the age group 30-49 for various countries who have 2 or fewer children, vs. those in that age group who thought 2 or fewer was the ideal number. I aggregated Wave 3 and Wave 4 surveys, so the times range from 1995 to 2002. Data, etc., below.


Proportions surveyed for those in age group 30-49



2 or fewer children 2 or fewer children "ideal" Difference between actual and ideal
Bangladesh 43.9 90.1 -46.2
India 43.5 74.7 -31.2
Vietnam 58.3 85.2 -26.9
Iran 52.8 73 -20.2
Turkey 48.7 63.9 -15.2
China 82.9 93.3 -10.4
Peru 54.3 62.3 -8
Mexico 46.2 53.2 -7
Taiwan 53.9 59.4 -5.5
Egypt 34.4 37.2 -2.8
El Salvador 46.8 48.3 -1.5
Czech 80.5 81.9 -1.4
Great Britain 77 78.2 -1.2
Puerto Rico 57.4 58.2 -0.8
Uruguay 64.1 64.3 -0.2
Venezuela 50.7 50.7 0
Germany 84.2 83.9 0.3
Romania 82.1 81.8 0.3
Slovakia 75.4 71.1 4.3
Azerbaijan 64 57.4 6.6
Brazil 62.6 55.9 6.7
Morocco 58.1 50.5 7.6
Chile 61.8 53.9 7.9
USA 70 61.1 8.9
Switzerland 80.5 71.2 9.3
Bulgaria 88.7 79.2 9.5
Argentina 55.8 46.3 9.5
Albania 62.1 52.5 9.6
Australia 70.6 60.9 9.7
Spain 82.3 72.5 9.8
Indonesia 48.1 37.8 10.3
Colombia 62.6 51.4 11.2
South Africa 58.4 47 11.4
Hungary 80.2 68.5 11.7
Iraq 28.8 16.9 11.9
Belarus 91.4 79 12.4
Ukraine 88.2 75.6 12.6
Pakistan 53.7 39.8 13.9
Russia 89.6 75.2 14.4
Poland 69.3 54.8 14.5
Jordan 26 11.5 14.5
Philippines 39.6 23.5 16.1
Canada 75.1 58.5 16.6
Finland 75.3 58.3 17
Sweden 74.6 57.2 17.4
Uganda 31.5 12.4 19.1
Saudi Arabia 39.4 20.1 19.3
South Korea 81.6 61.9 19.7
Slovenia 84.2 64 20.2
New Zealand 66.7 46.3 20.4
Zimbabwe 34.7 11.3 23.4
Macedonia 82.4 56.9 25.5
Singapore 79.9 54.4 25.5
Dominican Republic 48.9 23.3 25.6
Tanzania 43.1 17.4 25.7
Kyrgyzstan 49 21.9 27.1
Lithuania 85 57.7 27.3
Moldova 71.5 43.6 27.9
Armenia 64.9 36.8 28.1
Bosnia 81.9 53.4 28.5
Estonia 85.4 55.3 30.1
Nigeria 37.3 5.7 31.6
Croatia 82.3 46.4 35.9
Japan 77.5 41.5 36
Latvia 83.3 46 37.3
Serbia 79.4 39.9 39.5
Georgia 78.3 18.6 59.7



Now a chart, here's how you'd read it:

Top of the Y axis = low fertility in the 30-49 age group (lots of people with 2 or fewer children)

To the right of the X axis = nations with low fertility preferences in the 30-49 age group (lots of people who think 2 or fewer children is the ideal)

The line represents X = Y. So nations above the line are those where there is more ideal preference for children than the reality, while nations below the line there is more reality, so to speak, than the ideal.



There seems to be a situation where in many nations people want more children than they are having. That is, their avowed preference is greater than what is revealed by their behavior. There are general clusters. The "breeder nations," where people do have many children, but want even more, and the other set where populations are underperforming even their mild expectations. No surprise that the post-Communist nations are in the second category, but interestingly the East Asian nations of Japan and South Korea fall into this range. Interestingly, these are also nations which tend to be rather secular for their social conservatism from a Western perspective. Georgia is not a typo, though I wouldn't be surprised there was a problem with the data (it might be coded or entered incorrectly).

Then there are nations where people have more children than they want. Iran has some specific historical conditions which can explain this. During the Iran-Iraq War the Iranian leadership was pro-natalist, but in its wake they have strongly encouraged family planning. Iran is now a sub-replacement nation when it comes to fertility. Vietnam and India have experienced economic turnarounds of late due to their relatively late entrance into the game of globalization. These surveys occurred around the year 2000, about 10 years into both of their liberalization programs. One might be seeing the outcomes of earlier norms overlain upon new mores due to international media. Finally, as far as Bangladesh goes, it is an ethnically and religiously homogeneous nation, so there isn't a national imperative whereby ethnic groups worry about other groups outbreeding them. Additionally, it is very, very, crowded. There are many poor African nations, but aside from Rwanda and Burundi, all of them are far below the Malthusian parameters when it comes to primary production in relation to Bangladesh.

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