The LA Times commissioned a poll and found that:
54% of Americans would not vote for a Muslim
37% of Americans would not vote for a Mormon
21% of Americans would not vote for an evangelical Christian
15% of Americans would not vote for a Jew
10% of Americans would not vote for a Roman Catholic
This is relevant because Mitt Romney, a Mormon, is running for president (all but officially). The fact that is that even if 37% is a high water mark of rejection (I suspect it is, and that some voters would warm to Romney as they got to know the person as opposed to the perception of his religion), Romney basically has a zero shot with these numbers at being nominated. I say nominated very carefully, because a Romney hack points to the fact that as much as 1/3 of Americans stated they would not vote for John F. Kennedy because of his religion. The Democrats had already had a trial run with a Roman Catholic candidate, Al Smith, so they had some talking points ready to go. Nevertheless, the key difference between Romney and Kennedy is that Kennedy started with a large Roman Catholic base within his own party, and the hostility was from the predominantly WASP old guard in the opposition party. People point to Romney’s success in Massachusetts, an overwhelmingly Democratic and predominantly Roman Catholic state, as evidence he can transcend his religion, but the lesson is irrelevant because the greatest locus of hostility toward Mormonism is from conservative fundamentalist Protestant Christians, who are generally Republicans. The analogy to John F. Kennedy doesn’t work because he started from a large proportion of the electorate on his side due to religion (25% of Americans were Roman Catholic), while only 2-3% of Americans are Mormon. Even though Mormons are overwhelmingly Republican, they are dwarfed in influence and numbers by fundamentalist Protestants who very hostile to their religion.
I think Romney has a John McCain problem: he is more appealing to the overall electorate (as a moderate center-right candidate with charisma) than he is to the hard-core of the Republican party. I’ll convert to Mormonism if he gets nominated.
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