Geert Wilders & defaming Islam

Michael C. Moynihan has a article up at Reason, In Defense of Geert Wilders:

In response to the controversy surrounding Fitna, Wilders’ website was knocked offline by his American host, Network Solutions; he has been repeatedly denounced by the government of Jan Peter Balkenende as a liability to Dutch “interests”; the country’s shriveled monarch, Queen Beatrix, admonished that free speech doesn’t allow one the right to offend; and last week 1000 “anti-racism” activists protested Fitna in Amsterdam’s city center. As one demonstrator told Reuters, “There should be restrictions on what Wilders can say… it is a very bad example to people to let him say whatever he wants.” Similar demonstrations on behalf of free speech and the freedom to mock, insult, and defame religion have yet to materialize.

Ah, too bad here in the United States we aren’t as progressive and liberal as those Europeans. They’re so advanced compared to us. As a racist I luckily enjoy the right to insult Islam on this side of the pond.

Uyghurs are hybrids

uyg1.jpgAnother paper is out which falls under the category of using genetics to understand human history; Analysis of Genomic Admixture in Uyghur and Its Implication in Mapping Strategy:

The Uyghur (UIG) population, settled in Xinjiang, China, is a population presenting a typical admixture of Eastern and Western anthropometric traits. We dissected its genomic structure at population level, individual level, and chromosome level by using 20,177 SNPs spanning nearly the entire chromosome 21. Our results showed that UIG was formed by two-way admixture, with 60% European ancestry and 40% East Asian ancestry…Both the magnitude of LD and fragmentary ancestral chromosome segments indicated a long history of Uyghur. Under the assumption of a hybrid isolation (HI) model, we estimated that the admixture event of UIG occurred about 126 [107∼146] generations ago, or 2520 [2140∼2920] years ago assuming 20 years per generation. In spite of the long history and short LD of Uyghur compared with recent admixture populations such as the African-American population, we suggest that mapping by admixture LD (MALD) is still applicable in the Uyghur population but ∼10-fold AIMs are necessary for a whole-genome scan.

The rationale for these sorts of admixture studies is medical; you need to know the genetic background of a population to make sure that you don’t infer spurious assocations due to population substructure. Imagine that you have a study group and allele B on gene 1 is strongly associated with a higher incidence of disease X. This is important information which is going to be relevant for targeting and treatment. But what if you find out later that your study group consisted of two historically distinct populations, and allele B is only found in one of these. Additionally, within this population allele B is not associated with disease X. One can infer then that the original finding was simply due to the population substructure, and the correlation between allele B and disease X was due to the higher frequency of both these characters within a population as opposed to any causal relationship. Sometimes the substructure is going to be cryptic, and in other cases researchers need to be clear about the level of granularity necessary for any particular question.

Read More

More on Path Analysis

As a supplement to my post on Sewall Wright’s method of Path Analysis, here is an article on the subject which I just found. I don’t agree with all the authors’ comments, but the historical background and references are useful.

Posted in Uncategorized

Religion is good (broadly speaking)

Via Over Coming Bias, The science of religion – Where angels no longer fear to tread:

It is an ambitious shopping list. Fortunately, other researchers have blazed a trail. Patrick McNamara, for example, is the head of the Evolutionary Neurobehaviour Laboratory at Boston University’s School of Medicine. He works with people who suffer from Parkinson’s disease. This illness is caused by low levels of a messenger molecule called dopamine in certain parts of the brain. In a preliminary study, Dr McNamara discovered that those with Parkinson’s had lower levels of religiosity than healthy individuals, and that the difference seemed to correlate with the disease’s severity. He therefore suspects a link with dopamine levels and is now conducting a follow-up involving some patients who are taking dopamine-boosting medicine and some of whom are not.

Any bets on what’s causing this? I suspect low dopamine individuals are less likely to be socially conforming, so the effect on religiosity might be weaker in a society where religion is less important than the United States. But nice to see some neurochemical work on this. In the future perhaps neuroscientists will be able to advise parents on the optimal mixture of the “soup” in their offsprings’ brains to increase the chances of religiosity, or decrease it? (Randall Parker has been talking about this for years)

But probably the most interesting reported research in the piece has to do with group selection & functionalism:

To test whether religion might have emerged as a way of improving group co-operation while reducing the need to keep an eye out for free-riders, Dr Sosis drew on a catalogue of 19th-century American communes published in 1988 by Yaacov Oved of Tel Aviv University. Dr Sosis picked 200 of these for his analysis; 88 were religious and 112 were secular. Dr Oved’s data include the span of each commune’s existence and Dr Sosis found that communes whose ideology was secular were up to four times as likely as religious ones to dissolve in any given year.

A follow-up study that Dr Sosis conducted in collaboration with Eric Bressler of McMaster University in Canada focused on 83 of these communes (30 religious, 53 secular) to see if the amount of time they survived correlated with the strictures and expectations they imposed on the behaviour of their members. The two researchers examined things like food consumption, attitudes to material possessions, rules about communication, rituals and taboos, and rules about marriage and sexual relationships.

As they expected, they found that the more constraints a religious commune placed on its members, the longer it lasted (one is still going, at the grand old age of 149). But the same did not hold true of secular communes, where the oldest was 40. Dr Sosis therefore concludes that ritual constraints are not by themselves enough to sustain co-operation in a community-what is needed in addition is a belief that those constraints are sanctified.

Dr Sosis has also studied modern secular and religious kibbutzim in Israel. Because a kibbutz, by its nature, depends on group co-operation, the principal difference between the two is the use of religious ritual. Within religious communities, men are expected to pray three times daily in groups of at least ten, while women are not. It should, therefore, be possible to observe whether group rituals do improve co-operation, based on the behaviour of men and women.

To do so, Dr Sosis teamed up with Bradley Ruffle, an economist at Ben-Gurion University, in Israel. They devised a game to be played by two members of a kibbutz. This was a variant of what is known to economists as the common-pool-resource dilemma, which involves two people trying to divide a pot of money without knowing how much the other is asking for. In the version of the game devised by Dr Sosis and Dr Ruffle, each participant was told that there was an envelope with 100 shekels in it (between 1/6th and 1/8th of normal monthly income). Both players could request money from the envelope, but if the sum of their requests exceeded its contents, neither got any cash. If, however, their request equalled, or was less than, the 100 shekels, not only did they keep the money, but the amount left was increased by 50% and split between them.

Dr Sosis and Dr Ruffle picked the common-pool-resource dilemma because the communal lives of kibbutz members mean they often face similar dilemmas over things such as communal food, power and cars. The researchers’ hypothesis was that in religious kibbutzim men would be better collaborators (and thus would take less) than women, while in secular kibbutzim men and women would take about the same. And that was exactly what happened.

These sorts of data are relatively persuave to me about the functional power of religious institutions and social dynamics. Of course, apparent deviations from the trendline will be important to examine too. This is the closest thing to a website I could find for the Explaining Religion Project.

Muslim fundamentalists, then and now

It was in the 7th century of the Christian Era many of the events which shaped the course of Islamic sectarianism occurred. The major one you are aware of is the Shia-Sunni split; the reality of the origins of this schism and the way in which in manifests today is more complex than the cartoon cut-out you are normally presented, but I want to focus on a group which is outside of the Shia-Sunni dichotomy, the Ibadi. The Ibadi are descended from one of the assorted Kharijite sects. The Kharijites were extremists in the early history of Islam, they rejected Ali because he offered to parlay with the opposition. Though analogies are fraught with misrepresentations, the Kharijites are somewhat like the radical Protestants of the early Reformation era; they rejected the the vast majority of Muslims as infidels and refused to compromise with the world. Here is the Wikipedia characterization of Kharijites:

Read More

Facts matter

Over at my other blog I flogged Jamie Kirchick somewhat for what seemed to me a pretty obvious misrepresentation of basic facts. You might think these “gotchas” are picayune, but I don’t think they are at all. Do you remember back in 2002 when Colin Powell misspoke about the “Sunni majority” of Iraq? These are not easy slip ups to make if you have a good model in your head for the situation on the ground in far off lands, rather, they indicate a thin network of contingent data. Scratching below the surface of the CIA Factbook is important. Knowing that 40% of Yemenis are Shia is an important fact, but knowing that most of these 40% are Zaidis, stereotypically the “most Sunni” of the modern Shia adds more nuance. Many of the rest are Ismaili, who are the “least Sunni.” The smallest of the Shia groups are Twelver Shias. This is the largest of the Shia sects, and probably the most typical one in terms of compromising between Ismaili distinctiveness and Zaidi banality. It is the group dominant in Iran, the Gulf and Lebanon. Does this matter? If you think geopolitically in terms of the Shia Crescent, it does. Does thinking geo-politically matter? I’ll leave that up to you.
When we’re talking about science there’s a lot of precise and fixed background information we’re working with. Not only are there facts, there are strong theoretical frameworks which give you “free information” and that you can use in your heuristics. Unfortunately there aren’t that many robust theoretical frameworks on the scale of area studies. Facts matter because they’re the only guides you have in making proximate decisions. Conclusions will differ between people because of different interests and alternative normative frames, but an agreemant on known background facts is essential for elevating the level of discussion above that of two blind people discussing the merits of Monet vs. Picasso (no offense to the blind readers of this weblog!). I don’t really mind differences of conclusion based on varied norms or self-interest; but the casual pig-ignorance of very smart people on topics which they feel qualified to offer an opinion on irritates me because mitigation of a dearth of facts is relatively easy if you have the marginal time. My own experience is that the denser the network of facts the easier retention becomes. At a particular density threshold I suspect there is an increase of the marginal value of the fact in terms of discerning patterns and trends, though diminishing returns kicks in once we’ve attained all the perceptual power the human mind can expect.

Many times I’ve criticized people for using a very weak analogy, or relying on fallacious background facts. These are critiques of process, and I can tell people get frustrated by this, they want to get to the conclusions and argue over the ends instead of the means. I think this is totally wrong-headed; imagine if someone wanted to discuss particle physics without taking the prerequisite mathematical & science courses (you encounter such retards regularly actually). Personally I would much rather listen to a well argued case or position at variance with my own than a weak case which buttressed a personally held opinion (my favorite form of masturbation is sexual). It is ultimately a game where we need to look beyond individual battles, and focus on the war. The long forever war to understand the world around us predicated on good faith and particular principles which keep the ecology relatively clean. For an appropriate equilibrium to be maintained cheaters must be punished lest they invade the ecosystem.

Posted in Uncategorized