In 1996 Bill Clinton won with 49% of the vote vs. 41% for Bob Dole. The New York Times now allows you to compare county-by-county outcomes across two elections between all presidential years between 1992 and 2008. I think 1996 is the most analogous to Barack Obama’s victory yesterday, so I want to focus on that map. My comments:
1) Obama got more of the black vote. No surprise.
2) Geographic proximity matters. Much of the Upper Midwest where the black turn out can’t explain Obama’s advantage over Clinton is not too far from Chicago. One could term it Greater Chicago, but I don’t want to be hounded by Packers fans….
3) The pockets of blue along the Atlantic seaboard can’t be explained just by black turnout (e.g., Fairfax and Broward counties). Rather, from Florida to the Research Triangle you have shifting demographics as people relocate to the South from the North. In New England the Republican brand has been in sharp decline over the past generation, symbolized by the fact that Christopher Shays just lost his battle to keep the lone remaining seat for that party in that region. Both Vermont and New Hampshire have been changed by migration from Bosnywash just as the Atlantic South has been.
4) It gets interesting to the west of the Mississippi. Compare the map below to one which displays the % of Hispanics, and I think one can dismiss the difference being purely due to the increased number of ethnic minorities. Something similar to #3 might be at work, but, I suspect part of the issue is that since ’96 the Republicans have become more and more a de facto party of the South marginal Republicans in the Great Plains, Interior and Coastal West are peeling off, just as marginal Democrats in the South (Dixiecrats) are being converted into straight-ticket Republicans. The Great Flip has not transformed the original western Republican bastions into predominantly Democratic territory as it has in Greater New England east of the MIssissippi, but it has resulted in a striking shift toward the Democrats.
These results won’t be too surprising if you read my post, The Great White Sort.
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