
As I’m reading this book, I’ve been giving thought how I would respond to this comment:
…not only were priests an independent power source from kings, but no matter how deeply interrelated each was in principle independent of the other, with their own independent spheres: the secular sphere and the religious sphere. This fact too was important in shaping the modern world, in that modernity assumes that government is fundamentally secular in a way that would have been unfamiliar to pre-moderns outside of Latin Christendom.
This is a common view. Fareed Zakaria, for example, expresses something similar in The Future of Freedom, whereby the emergence of an independent Western Church after the Fall of Rome created space for secularization and the development of liberal democratic institutions through decentralization of power.
And yet after having just read History of Japan, and reading again about the Battle of Anegawa, where Oda Nobunaga completed a chapter of his crushing of institutional Buddhism as an independent power in Japan, I wonder what the above even means. A standard model would argue that in East Asia religion suffused life, philosophy tended toward monism, and there was no separation between this world and that. The Emperor of Japan descended from the Sun Goddess. The Emperor of China was the Son of Heaven, though Heaven was not conceived of in an anthropomorphic sense. And yet the kingship of nations such as France and England have exhibited a sacral nature, and to this day the monarch of England is also the head of its established religion.


Though many people assert that the Roman Empire became “officially” Christian with the conversion of Constantine, or perhaps during the reign of Theodosius the Great at the end of the 4th century, the reality is that the Roman Empire was not a totalitarian state. The dissolution of paganism occurred more through slow decay and death, as the cessation of subsidies from the state starved elite paganism, and persistent missionary efforts blanketed the population with nominal Christianity.
The assertion above that “government is fundamentally secular in a way that would have been unfamiliar to pre-moderns outside of Latin Christendom” always strikes me as strange 
The issue rather is with the cultural elite, and what their beliefs were. There is a line of argument that philosophical dualism, and a particular sort of disenchantment with the world and a rationalism, was pregnant within Western Christianity, and came to fruition with Calvinism and modern forms of Catholicism. In the ancient world, Christians believed that magic was real, and that the pagans worshipped true supernatural forces, but that these were rooted in the devil. The argument proceeds that in early modernity this belief gave way to more rationalist views, whereby God remained true, but non-Christian beliefs were rooted in falsehood, rather than demons. Magic was now simply trickery.
And yet History of Japan notes that even before Oda Nobunaga’s crushing of the Buddhist clerical powers of the 16th century the society was going through broad secularization, as popular and elite enthusiasm for religion abated. Though the Tokugawa regime enforced Buddhist registration by families across Japan, this was a measure that enabled control and regulation, not one which promoted religion as such. Japanese intellectuals during this period were influenced by currents skeptical of supernaturalism that had its roots in Chinese Confucianism, and this in its turn can be found to have prefigured by anti-supernaturalist threads as far back as Xunzi.

Naturally, others will have different views. But one of the reasons I am such a fan of Peter Turchin’s project is that I tire of semantic definitions as the axis around which arguments hinge. I am usually unconvinced by the erudition of my interlocutors because in most cases I don’t get a sense that they know more than I do, even though perhaps they may, in fact, be in the right. Rather than calculating, argumentation is often a way for two individuals to assess each other’s knowledge base and sophistication. If there is parity, there will never be a resolution, because personal qualities are more relevant than reality.

The dissolution of paganism occurred more through slow decay and death, as the cessation of subsidies from the state starved elite paganism, and persistent missionary efforts blanketed the population with nominal Christianity.
So you don’t buy the role of plagues in (a) discouraging pagans about their gods and (b) the spotlight they shined on Christians who remained in cities tending to the sick and burying the dead, as Harper argued in The Fate of Rome?
That is, many pre-modern peasants were not religious as much as they were superstitious, and their Christianity was a thin skein upon folk beliefs.
My impression based on scattered passages I’ve read over the years is that this was true not only of “Christian” pre-modern peasants but also among pre-modern poor Jews & Muslims (“poor” rather than “peasants” to include town and city residents as well). I’ve run across references to saints among North Africans of both faiths, and IIRC also occasionally among poor East-European Jews in the late middle ages/early modern era. Further, when you read about early white settlers in and west of the Appalachians (not just in Huck Finn: I’m reading Herndon’s biography of Lincoln at the moment and in discussing Lincoln’s upbringing and youth, he briefly describes a variety of widely held beliefs that fall into this category) … Well!
Re “That is, many pre-modern peasants were not religious as much as they were superstitious, and their Christianity was a thin skein upon folk beliefs.”
I may not have a deep understanding of this, let alone a quantitative understanding, but it seems to me that religious fervor ran deep with many of the pre-modern rank and file, and while that fervor may be simplistic in its ideology, it has more content than a set of superstitions on how to protect yourself and your family. Religious pilgrimages, wars, an occasional Crusade, even devout religious attendance and financial support weren’t always imposed on people from above.
No question that Christianity at the peasant level was highly influenced by folk beliefs, but it seems like it also had its own powerful influence.
I suppose an argument to the contrary was that most peasants didn’t join crusades, and they went to church to gossip, or unwillingly, or not at all. Still seems though that Christianity brought a lot more ideological dynamics compared to folk/animist beliefs that preceded it in much of Europe.
Graham Robb’s The Discovery of France: A Historical Geography from the Revolution to the First World War suggests that though just about all French peasants considered themselves Christians, they had many pagan and/or animist and/or superstitious beliefs that were “theologically incorrect.”