11 thoughts on “Will Twitter fail whale come back before December 1st?”
Media coverage has been predictably one sided.
I am going to guess that there are enough grunts at the Company who have actually worked to keep the system up and running to keep it going. My guess is that they are completely resentful of all the drones and frauds who have been on the payroll but who have done no work since March 11, 2020.
the twitter will implode and die people are just projecting their hate of Elon Musk. They assume because they hate Musk, all good people hate Musk, and since only good people can do good things like write code, therefore Musk will fail because he’ll be left only with right wing bad grifters, who can’t do anything good like wright code.
Elon Musk may destroy twitter, but like Rome, it won’t die in a day. there’s a lot of ruin in a nation, and a lot of ruin in social networks. Will take years to kill.
anyone who predicts twitter is suddenly about to die should be flagged in your mind as someone who doesn’t understand tech. it’s discrediting.
At the least because I am not on twitter, I’m with Yogi: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
@Marcel: Deeper investigation on that proverb:
“In conclusion, current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the author remains unknown. The first written instance now known was dated 1948.”
Is it truly comical (in that predictions and future are tautological)? We make predictions about the past all the time (although I guess you could say they are about knowledge about the past which comes to light in the future).
@Matt: And (Macro-) economists talk about predicting the present (because, for instance, surveys take time to collect, clean, etc.).
@Walter Sobchak: Yeah, yeah, spoil sport. Your research calls to mind Stigler’s Law of Eponymy. In citing Yogi Berra, one is engaging in a social convention that sets the stage for a certain kind of malapropism (though when I use the same source for malapropism, it certainly does not seem correct to describe Yogi-isms that way. The examples here are more along the lines of what I understand malapropisms to be.)
Nathan Taylor: They assume because they hate Musk, all good people hate Musk, and since only good people can do good things like write code, therefore Musk will fail because he’ll be left only with right wing bad grifters, who can’t do anything good like write code.
It may be more cynical than that; less believing that this is so but that the perception that it is so must be so. It’s perhaps about manufacturing the perception that if you are a talented person and dissent from the very managed version of public participation which is on offer – with very fixed bounds to the right but an acceptable margin that moves always further to the left and therefore a centre that always moves to the left – you are in an extreme minority. At twitter right now, I would expect far more thinning of American-born engineers, much less thinning of overseas engineers who are less concerned with US-side social pressures.
Absolutely conformity needs only the idea that any dissenters will be in the extreme minority, and will be confined to an inferior or excluded social class by a policing action. If it’s not so that all the talented people are on “the right side”, then people of a revolutionary spirit will make it so with coordinated action.
@Nathan Taylor: This largely supports your position. As I said, I have never been on twitter (perhaps a couple of tweets 6-7 years ago before deciding it was not for me, I don’t recall for sure) and I am not in tech, but the opinion expressed there seems plausible.
I’m stunned by Twitters rapid collapse relative to the pre-Musk case, so my priors that it would be no big deal are unmoored and I have no idea if it will or will not happen.
Does it matter?
The open thread is closed and this comment wasn’t related to the BP blog so I thought about posting it here.
In a recent youtube video on the unsupervised learning channel, an audio monologue on Anatolia was uploaded. In that Razib, I think you mistook LBK for Funnel Beakers and said that LBK were 75% Anatolian. That number is more correct for Funnel Beakers/FBK (iirc they are 80% or 75% Anatolian on average, I don’t remember exactly which number). LBK on the other hand was like 95% Anatolian, with minimal WHG ancestry because much of the WHG ancestry arrived later, at around the end of the LBK culture. Also another small note: Cardium Pottery touched the Balkans north of Greece as well like Croatia before getting to history, its only a minor contact but the only early Cardium pottery sample that I know of is from there so I thought I’d mentioned that.
Media coverage has been predictably one sided.
I am going to guess that there are enough grunts at the Company who have actually worked to keep the system up and running to keep it going. My guess is that they are completely resentful of all the drones and frauds who have been on the payroll but who have done no work since March 11, 2020.
the twitter will implode and die people are just projecting their hate of Elon Musk. They assume because they hate Musk, all good people hate Musk, and since only good people can do good things like write code, therefore Musk will fail because he’ll be left only with right wing bad grifters, who can’t do anything good like wright code.
Elon Musk may destroy twitter, but like Rome, it won’t die in a day. there’s a lot of ruin in a nation, and a lot of ruin in social networks. Will take years to kill.
anyone who predicts twitter is suddenly about to die should be flagged in your mind as someone who doesn’t understand tech. it’s discrediting.
At the least because I am not on twitter, I’m with Yogi: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
@Marcel: Deeper investigation on that proverb:
“In conclusion, current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the author remains unknown. The first written instance now known was dated 1948.”
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/
Is it truly comical (in that predictions and future are tautological)? We make predictions about the past all the time (although I guess you could say they are about knowledge about the past which comes to light in the future).
@Matt: And (Macro-) economists talk about predicting the present (because, for instance, surveys take time to collect, clean, etc.).
@Walter Sobchak: Yeah, yeah, spoil sport. Your research calls to mind Stigler’s Law of Eponymy. In citing Yogi Berra, one is engaging in a social convention that sets the stage for a certain kind of malapropism (though when I use the same source for malapropism, it certainly does not seem correct to describe Yogi-isms that way. The examples here are more along the lines of what I understand malapropisms to be.)
Nathan Taylor: They assume because they hate Musk, all good people hate Musk, and since only good people can do good things like write code, therefore Musk will fail because he’ll be left only with right wing bad grifters, who can’t do anything good like write code.
It may be more cynical than that; less believing that this is so but that the perception that it is so must be so. It’s perhaps about manufacturing the perception that if you are a talented person and dissent from the very managed version of public participation which is on offer – with very fixed bounds to the right but an acceptable margin that moves always further to the left and therefore a centre that always moves to the left – you are in an extreme minority. At twitter right now, I would expect far more thinning of American-born engineers, much less thinning of overseas engineers who are less concerned with US-side social pressures.
Absolutely conformity needs only the idea that any dissenters will be in the extreme minority, and will be confined to an inferior or excluded social class by a policing action. If it’s not so that all the talented people are on “the right side”, then people of a revolutionary spirit will make it so with coordinated action.
@Nathan Taylor: This largely supports your position. As I said, I have never been on twitter (perhaps a couple of tweets 6-7 years ago before deciding it was not for me, I don’t recall for sure) and I am not in tech, but the opinion expressed there seems plausible.
I’m stunned by Twitters rapid collapse relative to the pre-Musk case, so my priors that it would be no big deal are unmoored and I have no idea if it will or will not happen.
Does it matter?
The open thread is closed and this comment wasn’t related to the BP blog so I thought about posting it here.
In a recent youtube video on the unsupervised learning channel, an audio monologue on Anatolia was uploaded. In that Razib, I think you mistook LBK for Funnel Beakers and said that LBK were 75% Anatolian. That number is more correct for Funnel Beakers/FBK (iirc they are 80% or 75% Anatolian on average, I don’t remember exactly which number). LBK on the other hand was like 95% Anatolian, with minimal WHG ancestry because much of the WHG ancestry arrived later, at around the end of the LBK culture.
Also another small note: Cardium Pottery touched the Balkans north of Greece as well like Croatia before getting to history, its only a minor contact but the only early Cardium pottery sample that I know of is from there so I thought I’d mentioned that.