The greatest killer of all time?


Recently there was a somewhat stupid “controversy” on Twitter where someone tried to get “Genghis Khan canceled.” It was mostly a joke but illustrated an important fact: it is hard to deny the reality of the brutality of Genghis Khan’s conquests.

Part of the reason is that the Mongols themselves are not shy about what happened. The Secret History of Mongols is a document that is nearly contemporary with the original conquests and outlines their brutality. But sometimes conquerors boast. Consider the monuments erected by the Egyptians asserting they won the Battle of Kadesh, which they did not in fact win.

But we have external validation of the Mongol impact on the world’s human geography. The human die-off was large enough that it may have left an ecological footprint to increase carbon uptake from forests that grew because fewer people were around to cut them down! Additionally, there is lots of circumstantial evidence that the Mongols replaced some of the genes of people they killed.

If you want a thorough modern overview, I recommeend Genghis Khan: His Conquests, His Empire, His Legacy. If you want, “actually Genghis Khan was good”, then Jack Weatherford’s Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World.

A bigger question is how we should judge Genghis Khan in relation to his time. Julius Caesar in Gallic Wars claims hundreds of thousands of deaths. Other ancient historians argue for millions. These are likely exaggerations, but they illustrate the fact that ancient war was brutal, and the Mongols were basically a hunter-gatherer people who had recently taken up nomadism. Their morality and ethics were primitive, to say the least. In t he 18th century the highly civilized Qianlong Emperor ordered the genocide of the Dzunghars.

I think the clear reason why the Mongols and Genghis Khan are held in such ill repute is that they were the greatest and most explosive of the barbaric eruptions from the Eurasian core. They were Atilla the Hun simultaneously assaulting the Four Corners of the world. They quickly created the largest land empire in the history of the world and therefore wreaked havoc from one end of Eurasia to the other. The Mongols finally collapsed the distinctions and distances between disparate portions of the Eurasian “rimland” civilizations. They were the ones who brought Roman Catholic Alans to Northern China and sponsored a flourishing of Buddhism in Iran for several decades. The consensus is that the Hui Chinese Muslim community derives mostly from the Mongol period when they imported Central Asian Muslims as a “middleman minority.”

Many books of history that are macro-focus use the Mongol Empire as a watershed because it destroyed so much and created a new “world system” which persisted long after the Mongol Empire as such was no more. To understand the “Great Divergence” and the early modern breakout of Europe,  one has to understand the resurgence of rimland polities in the wake of the Mongol shock.

Perhaps the ‘Genghis Khan haplotype’ is not Genghis Khan’s?

Literally hundred of thousands of people have read my post, 1 in 200 men direct descendants of Genghis Khan, since 2010. It was based on the paper The Genetic Legacy of the Mongols*, which reported that one particular Y chromosomal lineage was very common in Central Asia, and, that it exhibited hallmarks of explosive growth over the last thousand years.

A new paper suggests that this inference is wrong, Whole-sequence analysis indicates that the Y chromosome C2*-Star Cluster traces back to ordinary Mongols, rather than Genghis Khan:

The Y-chromosome haplogroup C3*-Star Cluster (revised to C2*-ST in this study) was proposed to be the Y-profile of Genghis Khan. Here, we re-examined the origin of C2*-ST and its associations with Genghis Khan and Mongol populations. We analyzed 34 Y-chromosome sequences of haplogroup C2*-ST and its most closely related lineage. We redefined this paternal lineage as C2b1a3a1-F3796 and generated a highly revised phylogenetic tree of the haplogroup, including 36 sub-lineages and 265 non-private Y-chromosome variants. We performed a comprehensive analysis and age estimation of this lineage in eastern Eurasia, including 18,210 individuals from 292 populations. We discovered that the origin of populations with high frequencies of C2*-ST can be traced to either an ancient Niru’un Mongol clan or ordinary Mongol tribes. Importantly, the age of the most recent common ancestor of C2*-ST (2576 years, 95% CI = 1975–3178) and its sub-lineages, and their expansion patterns, are consistent with the diffusion of all Mongolic-speaking populations, rather than Genghis Khan himself or his close male relatives. We concluded that haplogroup C2*-ST is one of the founder paternal lineages of all Mongolic-speaking populations, and direct evidence of an association between C2*-ST and Genghis Khan has yet to be discovered.

The primary aspect here seems to be pushing the age back. The Mongols, or what became the Mongols, were a marginal group of tribes when this variant arose. There is some citation of the fact that some putative descendants of Genghis Khan don’t even carry the “Star Cluster”, but there are other papers which report even different haplotypes! So I’m not sure that that is dispositive in any sense.

Perhaps the true question now is why this cluster expanded so much over the past 2,500 years or so? There are plenty of candidates historically, but being Bayesians we should be cautious about overturning prior hypotheses on new data. Coalescence dating in particular is often an art as opposed to a science (I don’t mean this literally, but anyone who has used the programs mentioned in the paper knows what I mean).

An alternative model is that as a null we should expect star clusters now and then. But most people don’t seem to think that rapid expansion of Y chromosomes during the Holocene is simply a matter of chance as opposed to necessity.

* My boss and friend, Spencer Wells, was a coauthor on the paper.