Indian population genomics will move forward notably. The ancient DNA work really feels like vaporware sometimes. Some of the researchers involved reach out to journalists (people of my acquaintance) and leave tantalizing clues, but they disappear off the face of the earth. I assume that some sort of Indo-Aryan intrusion from Central Asia will seem clear from the data and results, though the Indian media and intellectual class will claim the opposite. In this way they are just like the American media and intellectual class; if the evidence does not fit just say that the evidence says the opposite of what it does. People will believe because they want to believe.
The current protests in Iran won’t go anywhere. Someone with guns needs to be on the side of the protestors. That’s it. Also, if a group with guns ends up favoring them, the West will find that anti-clerical Iranians are quite nationalistic and not necessarily liberal democrats.
The Democrats will win the House of Representatives. I think there’s about a 50/50 chance that they’ll get the Senate.
The United States will be in a recession by the last quarter of 2018. We’re overdue. All OECD countries are growing, to the point where Brent crude prices are going up. This isn’t sustainable, especially since many developed nations have been kicking the bucket down the line.
Personal genomics is going to be more of a presence as the year progresses. I was surprised by all the attacks from the tech-press on direct to consumer genomics over the past few months. That indicates to me that the industry is getting big enough to be a click-bait target.
George R. R. Martin will publish Winds of Winter.
More ancient DNA from the New World. This has been in the works for a while. I’m really skeptical that they won’t be able to push it out in 2018.
Twitter will continue to not be able to find its way. Basically, it can’t win, and won’t win.
More work in complex trait genetics published. This is has been long in the works, so this I know for a fact. Whatever the results, don’t worry, it will confirm all your priors no matter what those priors are.