It looks like the USA has gone through “wave 3”. But one thing masked in the aggregate data is regional variation. Whereas major hotspots like California peaked in January, the states in the Upper Midwest peaked around December 1st. In November there were many alarmist headlines about what was going on in places like Wisconsin and North Dakota. But since then the case-rates have faded, and these states no longer graced the headlines.
Why does this matter? I think it tells us we have some breathing room as we ramp up on vaccination. I doubt this breathing room is indefinite, so we can’t be complacent. But we got a shot. Let’s make the best of it.
(and yes, it is over)
Third wave is officially over. pic.twitter.com/HhHbz1iSgo
— Josiah Neeley 🤔 (@jneeley78) January 26, 2021
I’m not surprised it’s slowed down in North Dakota. If we go with the typical 0.5% IFR, then 288,000 people in North Dakota – nearly 38% of the state’s population – has likely had Covid. They could still conceivably get an outbreak, but given that it also has pretty low population density it’s becoming increasingly unlikely.
@ Brett,
I saw a study recently which found that even though Manaus has already exceeded a 70% infection rate there is no sign that herd immunity has yet to be reached. Given this is the case, I have a hard time believing that a 38% infection rate alone is enough in and of itself to stop COVID from spreading.
There is some thought that Manaus is getting hit by the South African variant, which seems to be able to infect some people who have had (and thus are assumed to be immune to) the original variant.