A few years ago Pew did a survey on attitudes to abortion by state, and you can see the results below in the table.
What I want to focus on is that both Kansas and Ohio have both kept most abortions legal through the popular vote. This can give us a sense of the popular mood: probably no state more liberal than them in surveyed views would approve abortion restrictions if it was a plebiscite. In fact, the victories in Kansas and Ohio, two states where the earlier poll suggested people were split, indicate that currently by popular vote only about ten states would probably be pro-life today.
Which brings me to the issue of legislatures and the parties. Oklahoma is as pro-choice a state as New Mexico on the popular level, but because Oklahoma is a very conservative Republican state, and New Mexico is a trending liberal Democratic state, their abortion policies at the opposite poles. I also want to highlight Nebraska and North Carolina, two states that are more pro-choice that Kansas and Ohio, but have very restrictive abortion laws. Finally, Florida is a very pro-choice state despite trending Republican since 2016. I think that Republican trend will be in jeopardy unless the party moderates on the abortion issue. The gap between public sentiment and the law seems too great.
| State | Legal in all/most cases | Illegal in all/most cases | Don’t know | N | Delta |
| West Virginia | 35% | 58% | 6% | 309 | 23% |
| Mississippi | 36% | 59% | 5% | 309 | 23% |
| Arkansas | 38% | 60% | 2% | 311 | 22% |
| Kentucky | 36% | 57% | 7% | 439 | 21% |
| Alabama | 37% | 58% | 4% | 511 | 21% |
| Louisiana | 39% | 57% | 4% | 465 | 18% |
| Tennessee | 40% | 55% | 5% | 661 | 15% |
| South Carolina | 42% | 52% | 6% | 495 | 10% |
| Indiana | 43% | 51% | 6% | 654 | 8% |
| Missouri | 45% | 50% | 5% | 642 | 5% |
| Texas | 45% | 50% | 4% | 2,535 | 5% |
| North Dakota | 47% | 51% | 3% | 338 | 4% |
| Utah | 47% | 51% | 3% | 315 | 4% |
| Idaho | 45% | 49% | 6% | 320 | 4% |
| South Dakota | 48% | 50% | 3% | 305 | 2% |
| Georgia | 48% | 49% | 4% | 968 | 1% |
| Wyoming | 48% | 49% | 3% | 316 | 1% |
| Kansas | 49% | 49% | 3% | 307 | 0% |
| Ohio | 48% | 47% | 4% | 1,132 | -1% |
| Arizona | 49% | 46% | 4% | 653 | -3% |
| North Carolina | 49% | 45% | 6% | 1,022 | -4% |
| Nebraska | 50% | 46% | 5% | 312 | -4% |
| New Mexico | 51% | 45% | 4% | 312 | -6% |
| Oklahoma | 51% | 45% | 4% | 391 | -6% |
| Iowa | 52% | 46% | 2% | 330 | -6% |
| Pennsylvania | 51% | 44% | 5% | 1,366 | -7% |
| Minnesota | 52% | 45% | 4% | 563 | -7% |
| Wisconsin | 53% | 45% | 3% | 600 | -8% |
| Michigan | 54% | 42% | 4% | 982 | -12% |
| Virginia | 55% | 42% | 3% | 882 | -13% |
| Illinois | 56% | 41% | 3% | 1,326 | -15% |
| Delaware | 55% | 38% | 6% | 301 | -17% |
| Florida | 56% | 39% | 5% | 2,020 | -17% |
| Montana | 56% | 38% | 5% | 312 | -18% |
| California | 57% | 38% | 5% | 3,697 | -19% |
| Colorado | 59% | 36% | 5% | 504 | -23% |
| Washington | 60% | 36% | 5% | 714 | -24% |
| New Jersey | 61% | 35% | 4% | 886 | -26% |
| Nevada | 62% | 34% | 3% | 314 | -28% |
| Alaska | 63% | 34% | 3% | 310 | -29% |
| Oregon | 63% | 34% | 3% | 419 | -29% |
| Maine | 64% | 33% | 3% | 303 | -31% |
| Maryland | 64% | 33% | 3% | 644 | -31% |
| Rhode Island | 63% | 31% | 7% | 305 | -32% |
| New York | 64% | 32% | 4% | 1,966 | -32% |
| Hawaii | 66% | 29% | 4% | 312 | -37% |
| New Hampshire | 66% | 29% | 5% | 303 | -37% |
| Connecticut | 67% | 28% | 5% | 377 | -39% |
| District of Columbia | 70% | 26% | 4% | 303 | -44% |
| Vermont | 70% | 26% | 4% | 306 | -44% |
| Massachusetts | 74% | 22% | 4% | 704 | -52% |
Ohio had a 12 percentage point gap in a recent popular vote on the question. Based upon that data point, it is more like seven states.
If at least 38 states vote in favour of abortion via referendums, Congress can push for a constitutional amendment and settle the issue
The Supreme Court would have ironically allowed the people to vote in favour of abortion and have it enshrined in the Constitution
Abortion rights are not in danger in France but, responding to what happened in the US, Emmanuel Macron will soon invite Parliament to unite at Versailles in “Congrès”, that is the Senate and the National Assembly together, to revise the Fifth Republic’s constitution to enshrine abortion rights